植耀輝:恆指上望21,400點 汽車股不宜撈底
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股上周五(6日)急升,雖然非農新增職位優於預期,但時薪升幅稍遜預期,另投資者相信聯儲局加息步伐有望提早結束。受樂觀氣氛支持,美股三大指數均升超過2%,全周計亦累升超過1%。
港股方面,2023年首周有理想表現,雖然上周五輾轉下跌,不過全周計恆指仍錄得可觀升幅(6.1%),反映投資者對復常及通關憧憬仍高;值得留意的是,新經濟股表現有驚喜,部分升幅更超過一成,當中阿里-SW(09988.HK)全周升幅更達到18%,騰訊(00700.HK)亦有超過一成升幅。
由於上周美股顯著造好,夜期亦已反彈至21,400點水平,加上通關消息,相信港股今日有望再創高位。事實上筆者相信只要憧憬仍在,預期大市樂觀氣氛仍有望維持;另外,250天線亦有相當大參考價值,一日能企穩於該水平之上,後市仍有望造好。
板塊方面,Tesla中國再度宣布國產車大降價,當中Model 3售價從26.59萬元人民幣(下同)降至22.99萬元,價格較美國便宜30%;Model Y售價亦從28.89萬元,下調至25.99萬元,價格相比美國更低43%。受Tesla減價消息拖累,美國上市之中概汽車股(蔚小理)均急挫,預期今日(9日)股價亦難免下跌。正如筆者一直強調,內地新能源車市場競爭激烈,加上造車新勢力盈利前景仍不明朗,故不建議大家胡亂撈底。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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美股造好 港股有望續創年內新高
耀才研究部稱,美國上月就業數據好壞參半,引發投資者憧憬美國加息步伐或有望提早告一段落。上周五(6日)美股三大指數抽升,道指便急升700點或2.13%,納指升幅更達到2.56%。不過中概股走勢則個別發展,金龍指數下跌0.76%。
港股上周五則表現反覆,最終下跌60點,收報20,991點。雖然「三連升」斷纜,但恆指全周計仍能累升超過1,210點或6.1%。由於昨日(8日)中港澳已恢復通關,宜留意通關後市場初步反應。不過,基於投資者對相關因素仍抱較大憧憬,預期恆指短期或先行整固,如A股造好,則港股仍有望挑戰21,400點或更高水平。
技術走勢方面,雖然恆指連續第二個交易日出現「陰燭」,但技術指標例如MACD及RSI向好趨勢未見轉壞,反映後市短期仍有望造好,只要能守穩250天線約20,400點附近水平,上升趨勢仍有望維持。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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