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花旗料內地首季GDP增長2.2% 全年增長5.3%
花旗集團首席經濟學家余向榮表示,今年中國經濟增長主要由內需驅動的自然修復。在預測去年GDP增長2.4%的低基數基礎下,預計今年中國GDP按年增長5.3%。 余向榮稱,第一季面臨開放的衝擊,預計中國GDP增長2.2%,第二季由於去年的上海封控造成的低基數有望跳升到7.5%,第三季又可能隨著基數提高降至4.1%,而在四季又回到7.1%。 他指,隨著疫情放開,從第二季開始旅遊出行等服務業可以開始實質性恢復。解除疫情約束之後,促銷費政策也可以進一步加力,預測今年社會零售總額增長約11%,高於市場一致預期6%左右,達到接近50萬億元,消費將貢獻4.1個百分點的GDP增速。另指外需將是今年內地經濟最大的變數,料今年出口下跌低單位數。 他提到,去年以來房地產支持政策已經顯著加碼,當前可以說已經完全轉向。當地產實現軟著陸,它對宏觀經濟的拖累就會減小。在此基礎上,政府將繼續推進基礎設施和製造業投資,維持二者單位數增長,因此預測固定資產投資今年增長5.4%左右,投資貢獻GDP增長2個百分點。 人民幣方面,他提到,中美政策和政策周期的持續逆轉可為人民幣提供基本面支持,預計今年人民幣匯率到年或中樞在6.9附近。 另外,花旗集團亞太區醫藥行業研究主管翁木子稱,中資醫藥股估值吸引,留意到海外長期投資者正尋求於本月底或下月初重返中國市場,建議投資較低風險的行業龍頭藍籌股,如業務能受惠內地重新開放。行業首選包括藥明生物02269.HK)、中生製藥(01177.HK)、國藥(01099.HK)及錦欣生殖(01951.HK)等。
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