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摩根資管:信貸及股票市場未完全反映衰退風險 短期取態審慎但呈良好切入點
摩根資產管理環球多資產策略師盛楠發表報告指,2023年全球增長低於趨勢的時間延長料屬不可避免。美國陷溫和衰退的風險上升,歐洲或已陷入衰退,即使程度或較原先憂慮的溫和。隨着中國放棄動態清零,正步入復甦軌道。 報告指,通脹已放緩但仍處令人不安的高水平,意味利率料在高位徘徊而不是掉頭急降。然而,投資者正押注利率逆轉,債券及現金市場已反映衰退風險,但信貸及股票市場尚未完全反映。 今年該行予股票「減持」看法,即使確信程度較低。該行對債券態度大致中性,但有意欲趁低吸納債券,及增加對高等級債券的敞口,特別是收益曲線短端。美元轉弱展望以及更佳估值支持該行輕微偏好非美國股市。相反,在主權債方面,該行喜好美債多於核心歐債。該行上調對信貸看法至「增持」,料未來數個月利率波動性料下降。 該行補充,其倉位反映短期審慎取態及料迎來增長呆滯,收益率及估值重置爲投資者帶來逾十年來最佳切入點。該行建議先切入固定收益產品,隨後切入股票,因今年首數個月或受累於盈利降級週期進一步推展。
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