《大行報告》花旗料內銀可受益中國「再開放」 首選郵儲行 港銀看好匯控
花旗發表研究報告指,中國自11月底起放寬防疫限制,目前見到明年中國重新開放的明確方向,日前當局更宣布明年1月8日起取消對入境國際旅客的檢疫要求,將有序恢復出境旅行,進展較預期快。
該行預期中國全面重新開放可能較早前預期更快實現,將成為中國、香港及泰國銀行業的關鍵催化劑,當中預期明年中國銀行業可能受益最大,並跑贏亞洲其他地區,但跑輸中國其他行業。
花旗指出,淨息差可能會在明年上半年見底回升,疫情下供應鏈中斷可能導致供應減少與需求急劇回升,推動消費者物價指數及通脹水平大幅上升,並限制人民銀行明年減息空間,預計一年期LPR可能不會下調,五年期LPR料僅在2023年初下調5個基點。
該行又指,重新開放下信貸需求獲提振,消費預期自低位反彈,明年銀行手續費收入增長前景向好,特別是財富管理需求強勁,市場對銀行資產質量的擔憂預期將有所緩解。此外,房地產寬鬆措施和經濟刺激措施也將有助於緩解投資者憂慮。
中資銀行方面,花旗較看好招商銀行(03968.HK)、郵儲銀行(01658.HK)、平安銀行(00001.SZ)及興業銀行(601166.SH),當中首選郵儲銀行及平安銀行。香港銀行則看好匯控(00005.HK),但受全球宏觀不確定性、借貸成本上升和房地產市場低迷影響,明年香港貸款增長可能保持低迷。
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