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《本地樓市》美聯黃建業:代理最壞時刻未過 料明年樓市續波動
阿思達克 12-28 10:16
美聯集團(01200.HK)主席黃建業在回顧時指出,地產代理行業正飽受「四高、四低」8大負面因素夾擊,面臨失業潮及吉舖潮,美聯集團旗下美聯物業雖然截至今年11月底的一手市佔按年上升,但是集團仍然因中國業務受封城及其他與新型冠狀病毒疫情相關之措施,以及買家對預售未完工樓盤失去信心所導致之惡劣市場環境所影響,加上本港物業成交「斷崖式」急挫,導致業績出現重大虧損。料本港樓市徹底復常仍須等待中港全面通關、經濟復甦、市民信心恢復,以及息口見頂「四盞綠燈」齊開通後才出現。預期明年市況仍然波動,交投或於農曆新年後出現小陽春,如今年內四盞「綠燈」齊開,全年樓價料小幅度反彈約5%,全年交投則因為購買力累積及「低基數效應」而回升。代理行業仍然挑戰重重,相信明年1月份農曆新年前會有更多代理失業,更多分行將關門結業。 黃建業預期,樓市正處於「尋底期」,有待站穩陣腳找尋回升「支持點」,樓市復常料需時,主要原因是通關太遲,樓市早於2021年反彈時「透支繁榮期」的購買力,單靠「內需」難以長期支持高樓價及高成交,近期出現的高價商業物業以低價成交,以及「啟德」地王以「時光倒流價」批出,其實都反映本港樓市及代理行業皆未擺脫最壞時刻。緊接而至的農曆新年是傳統樓市淡季,料「年關難過」,明年1月代理行業的失業潮及吉舖將邁向高峰,甚或繼續拖累其他地產相關行業,負資產上升甚至拖慢經濟復常。由於業主減租幅有限,預計租金將繼續高企,代理行業的生機,一是轉型發展數碼代理,大力發展線上業務;二是經濟及樓市復常。 黃建業表示,明年首季極可能是本港樓市的轉捩點。四盞「綠燈」之中,中港通關已近,整體利好香港,但是對樓市的長遠影響,還看全面通關對提振經濟的作用。如經濟平穩向上,絕對會帶動樓市向好。現時已有部份新香港人及「聰明錢」偷步入市「執筍盤」,預期本港樓市受到通關刺激,加上發展商重拾推盤步伐,成交會於農曆年後恢復一定暢旺,並帶動二手市場,出現「小陽春」,而且估計成交會較以往暢旺。惟須留意,中港通關既吸引國內人來港買樓,亦或令部份滯留國內的業主能夠來港放賣,以換取資金週轉,或抵銷通關部份動力,購買力消耗後未得補充,樓市或回歸沉寂,買賣雙方料觀望2月份《財政預算案》。 黃建業相信,《財政預算案》會是通關之外,本港樓市的另一重要關口,冀特區政府提出具體措施,加力吸引外商來港投資,加速經濟「疫後重生」。雖然特首李家超在首份《施政報告》中提出多項吸納人才來港政策,並於近期落實,但措施推出太遲,落後主要競爭對手,對經濟及樓市的刺激作用尚待發酵。他建議政府放寬按揭措施,2,000萬元以下物業可借9成;調高至500萬元或以下物業只需付100元印花稅,幫助更多上車人士;將15%的新住宅印花稅(New Residential Stamp Duty, NRSD)稅率回復至雙倍印花稅DSD。 至於息口走勢,黃建業預期,如明年四盞「綠燈」齊亮,樓市價量將回升。惟因為冰封過久,相信短期反彈力度有限,暫時難復往昔繁榮期。估計全年樓價或升5%;成交方面,預計明年一手成交將按年急升約七成半至1.6萬宗水平;同時帶動二手成交按年升約三成半,有望達至5萬宗的水平,升幅看似顯著,主要是基於「低基數效應」,相信短期內交投未復甦至高峰。 美聯集團副主席黃靜怡表示,即使已盡力爭取,業主們只給予有限度的租金寬減,美聯的業績無可避免大受影響。惟集團已實施一切可能的措施,以提升競爭力及減省成本,並已收成效。現時,以美聯品牌經營下的香港員工共4,600人。集團於2016年已啟動「數碼革新工程」,線上業務已進入收成期,加快邁向「數碼代理」的發展。今年VR樓盤及KOL視頻全年製作量齊創歷史新高,線上廣告效率提升五倍。
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