歐盟達成天然氣限價協議,亞洲LNG進口商鬆了一口
獲悉,如果歐盟明年按計劃實行天然氣價格上限協議,可能會限制亞洲天然氣價格的波動。亞洲液化天然氣(LNG)價格緊跟歐洲市場的走勢。過去一年,隨着歐洲和亞洲的進口商競相爭奪來自美國和卡塔爾等出口國的液化天然氣供應,這兩個市場變得密切相關。
當地時間12月19日,歐盟各國達成協議,將天然氣價格上限定在每兆瓦時180歐元,或大約每百萬英熱單位56美元。該限價機制將於2023年2月15日啓動。
限價機制生效後,歐洲的進口商可能無法大幅提高出價以獲得更多的天然氣,這降低了液化天然氣現貨價格失控上漲的可能性。
儘管如此,歐洲的限價機制仍存在爭議,因爲該機制可能會導致天然氣供應遠離歐盟。行業人士警告稱,如果亞洲液化天然氣價格高於歐洲的價格上限,更多供應將流向亞洲。
此外,高盛分析師Samantha Dart表示,在沒有相應需求限制的情況下設定價格上限可能會鼓勵消費,從而加劇歐洲的天然氣供應不足。這可能會導致明年全球供應緊張,在最壞的情況下,迫使各國政府對天然氣實行配給。
要觸發歐盟的價格上限機制,天然氣價格必須在連續超過上限3天的同時,較全球液化天然氣價格高出35歐元/兆瓦時。數據顯示,如果在今年年初實施這一機制,那麼在8月至9月期間有40多天會觸發該上限。
而在8月至9月的約兩週時間裏,亞洲液化天然氣價格在每百萬英熱單位56美元以上。
一些交易員表示,歐盟的價格上限受到了一些亞洲液化天然氣進口商的歡迎。在俄烏衝突爆發後,歐洲天然氣價格飆升並引發連鎖反應,波及這些亞洲進口商。今年亞洲天然氣現貨價格在每百萬英熱單位19美元至創紀錄的85美元之間波動,迫使幾家資金緊張的進口商暫停了採購計劃。
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