《大行報告》中金:股票通標的擴容 增厚北向收入 強化國際吸引力
中金發表研究報告指,中證監與香港證監會聯合宣布原則上擴大股票互聯互通標的範圍,指出今次是近年來來互聯互通機制持續優化的又一里程碑,其中滬深股通擴容範圍明顯,而港股通亦拓展至國際企業,預計短期將直接帶動港交所(00388.HK)盈利增厚約2.6%,中長期更將豐富兩地投資活動,以及強化港交所對國際公司的吸引力。
中金預測,目前滬深股通納入股票1,493隻,對應A股市值59萬億元人民幣,年初至今日均成交金額(ADT)達5,835億元人民幣,預料此次擴容後納入股票數量將增加68%至2,509隻,對應市值將增加18%至70.2萬億元人民幣,帶動ADT增長30%至7,605億元人民幣。
若假設北向滲透率不變,則預測標的擴容後北向ADT會由年初至今的1,011億元人民幣增至1,317億元人民幣,對應將增厚港交所收入及盈利3.6億元及2.6億元,佔今年度總收入及盈利的1.9%及2.6%。
另外,港股通納入標的數量預計將新增6家國際企業。中金指出,雖然短期內直接推動作用有限,但認為會進一步加強港交所的超級聯繫人角色,繼續為國際企業提供對接內地活躍資金的渠道,中長期有望提升港股對國際公司的吸引力,鞏固國際金融中心地位。
中金將港交所2022至2023年盈利預測上調6%及10%,料達102億及106億元,目標價相應上調10%至400元,對應2023年預測市盈率40倍,評級維持「跑贏行業」。
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