《本地樓市》美聯布少明:加息慢樓價回穩 料明年先穩後升5%
政府今日(14日)起取消「安心出行」及旅客訪港的黃碼安排。美聯物業住宅部行政總裁(港澳)布少明表示,新措施其實是變相「0+0」,等同於對外通關,惟相關措施推出「為時已晚」,樓市交投屢創新低,前所未見,可以用「極度深寒」來形容,料解凍需時,暫難受惠通關消息,樓價續有下調壓力,維持全年樓價跌15%的預測,超低成交將維持至明年1月。布少明認為,現時香港距離「復常」只差一線,與國內完全通關亦指日可待,疫情對樓市的影響正日漸淡化,未來樓市走勢將視乎息口變化,如美國真的放慢加息速度,樓市在解凍後可望反彈,相信最快要到明年農曆新年後,發展商加快推盤步伐,帶動氣氛,整體交投有望回暖,明年樓價會「先穩後升」,料全年升約5%。
發展商推盤步伐進一步放緩,布少明預期今年第四季一手成交量僅錄約800宗,甚至較今年首季第五波疫情爆發的960宗更少,創2013年一手銷售條例後的季度新低。二手方面,料今年第四季二手成交量約8,000宗,同樣遜色於首季錄約9,100宗;至於整體物業的註冊量則有機會跌穿6萬宗,創自1991年有紀錄以來的32年新低。
布少明指出,是次樓市無論跌幅及持續時間,皆較沙士有過之而無不及,預計影響亦超越沙士,解凍不能一朝一夕,需要較長時間,加上「通關」為時已晚,相信大部份市民的置業信心未全面復常,樓市暫難受惠於利好因素,低迷交投將延續至明年的1月,屆時二手成交量有機會連續8個月,即2022年6月至23年1月,低於3,000宗,創96年有紀錄以來最長的淡靜期。另外,美國11月通脹率創近一年新低,市場預期聯儲局的加息步伐或減慢,並有望於明年中後期見頂回落。如果預測屬實,屆時本港樓市將有望谷底回升。
他認為,恆生指數由10月底的低位大幅反彈逾三成,科技指數更升逾五成,反映投資氣氛已經大有改善。一般而言,股市會行先樓市二至三個月,以此推算,樓市「小陽春」將最快於明年1月下旬,亦即是農曆新年後出現。屆時樓市有望在發展商加快推盤的刺激下,恢復生氣。
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