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又要被罰?
uSMART盈立智投 12-12 20:46

Meta(META.US)可能會因不遵守《通用數據保護條例》而被追究責任,該條例於2018年生效並引發了數據處理的大規模劇變。

歐洲數據保護委員會(GDPR)證實,決定將於一個月後公佈,雖然Meta可能會上訴,但這可能是一個漫長的過程,該公司最終可能要承擔高達130億美元的罰款(約爲規則生效以來收入的4%),或260美元公允價值估值的2%。

值得注意的是,Meta的廣告價格可能會因此而永久性下降,廣告商可以優先考慮上下文廣告,而不是Meta所擅長的定向廣告。如果假設廣告庫存保持不變,但全球廣告價格比目前預期的低10%-20%,Meta估值將下降12%-25%。

規模縮減所伴隨最糟糕的情況是,Meta的處置過程中將會遇到足夠多的未知因素和偶發事件,因此無論GDPR結果如何,我們都認爲該股票具有吸引力。

如果這一決定得到支持,它可能會開創一個影響其他平臺提供商的先例,Snap(SNAP.US)和Pinterest(PINS.US)的公允價值估值將會分別被影響(包括使用類似假設對收入增長的罰款和長期影響)下降20%-40%和12%-25%。

雖然GDPR要求用戶同意使用在線行爲等數據進行定向廣告,但如果數據被認爲是相關服務的必要數據,則用戶只需要選擇是否同意條款或不訪問該網站或應用,而Meta一直將用戶行爲數據定義爲此類數據,因此無需爲用戶提供明確的選擇。Meta可能被迫放棄這種方法,如果許多用戶選擇退出,這可能會降低廣告商的廣告支出回報,從而可能導致廣告定價下降。

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