惠譽:中國消費走勢將決定美團的復甦步伐
惠譽評級表示,中國電商企業美團(03690.HK)的2022年前九個月板塊營業利潤為正表明其業績復甦,其現金生成能力已得到改善。然而,內地新冠感染人數復增及中國相應實施管控措施為美團2022年第四季度以來的營運帶來不確定性,並有可能拖累其復甦步伐。
惠譽認為美團在提高主要板塊盈利能力及壓降新業務虧損方面已取得良好進展。鑑於2022年第三季度美團的新業務板塊錄得與上季度同等的營業損失,惠譽預計美團在新業務投資方面將保持審慎態度。此外,惠譽預計美團將在維持該板塊現有規模以獲得更廣泛的客戶觸及及業務協同效應的同時,通過提高效率和合理定價來控制損失。
然而,新冠感染人數日益攀升疊加中國採取相應政策限制或致美團的營收減弱,具體取決於該等措施的實施期限和範圍。長期的出行限制或令美團盈利能力最強的到店酒旅板塊的交易量和盈利承壓。到店酒旅板塊的營收來自交易佣金和商戶營銷,此類業務受制於商店流量及商戶的廣告意願。美團正在將合作商戶範圍擴大到到店就餐之外的領域,但店面關停及消費者出行減少或對此帶來挑戰。同時,由於商戶的信心下降且來自競爭對手平台的競爭加劇,網絡營銷的收入增速或將放緩。
惠譽預計,在中國的新冠「動態清零」政策下,線上零售的增速將高於總體消費增速。該情形或有利於美團核心本地商業板塊的線上業務,主要包括餐飲外賣和美團閃購。2022年第三季度,美團的即時配送量較上季度環比增長22.5%,反映了餐飲類和非餐飲類線上需求均出現增長。然而,如果出現管控範圍擴大、期限延長等更嚴重的情形,總體消費將受到抑制,這或令該板塊的增速下降、營運成本增加及營運中斷。
對於騰訊(00700.HK)將其對美團的持股比例從17.0%降至1.6%左右,這對美團的信用狀況影響有限,原因在於兩家公司可能通過商業框架協議保持合作。
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