《大行報告》野村:市場焦點轉至內地樓市銷售何時復甦 對內房股基本面審慎
野村發表報告指,市場預期未來幾個月內地將對房地產行業作進一步放鬆政策。該行認為,內地在過去數天迅速放寬了防疫政策,而對房地產發展商有利的政策環境已逐漸被市場消化。該行提到,如「三支箭」是要支持未違約的民營房地產發展商,惟這些「箭」對支持住房需求僅能產生相當間接和有限的影響,指市場焦點轉至內地樓市銷售何時復甦。
該行對內地房地產開發行業的基本面保持謹慎,繼續看好龍湖(00960.HK)和新城發展(01030.HK)的短期表現。
該行預計,在12月初的中央經濟工作會議之後,需求側政策寬鬆將更加明朗。該行料內地將在未來幾周內取消目前對房地產市場的的行政限制,但不會引入全面的需求刺激措施,意味著內房銷售復甦可能需要一個漸進和緩慢的過程。該行預期房地產銷售將在2023年第二季開始恢復正增長。
該行提到,如預期一樣,內地的民營企業發展商的表現仍然相當疲弱,但國有企業發展商的銷售表現亦開始走弱,即使是表現最好的華潤置業(01109.HK),11月的房地產銷售按年僅增長9%。
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