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貝萊德龐文博:今年最終利率或達5%水平 並維持至明年
阿思達克 12-01 16:26
貝萊德智庫亞太區首席投資策略師龐文博(Ben Powell)預料,聯儲局今年最終利率加至5%,並維持其水平至明年結束為止,而非與市場預期在明年下半年或會減息,他解釋,由於聯儲局主席鮑威爾曾提及加息步伐會持續下去,直至出現經濟放緩,故預計來年貨幣政策會維持謹慎。 他認為明年環球經濟未如預期差,經濟衰退步伐持續但跌幅不會太大,主要是全球央行取態傾向與高通脹共存,成為一個新常態,更是明年投資主題之一,因為過去為壓低通脹低於2%,已令社會及經濟,包括失業率過度承壓,料未來已無法承受更多。他補充,一旦通脹帶來的損害浮現,央行或會暫停加息舉動,故認為長遠來看,新政策出台或成為通脹持續走高的因素。 他表示,由於通脹高企,傳統儲蓄資產,例如政府債券等,不如以往穩健,主要是其派息率未如理想,認為明年通脹從高位水平稍放緩,但料會持續下去,又指,未來除了疫情發展,能源議題亦值得關注。 對於明年全球經濟表現,整體持審慎看法,料歐美市場表現「跑輸大市」;日本、中國內地以及亞洲市場則「中性」。(ca/u) ~
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