《大行報告》美銀證券:港銀股盈利潛在強勁復甦 中銀(02388.HK)仍是首選
美銀證券發表研究報告指,港銀股去年及本年初至今均跑贏大市,當中以中銀香港(02388.HK)年內累跌2%、恆生(00011.HK)年內累跌16%;預料香港本地生產總值(GDP)增長會由今年料收縮3.3%,反彈至明年料升3.1%,同時料聯儲局基金利率將於今年12月及明年首季進一步上升,但在明年末季開始回落。
該行表示,去年香港銀行的利潤率觸底,並在今年下半年顯着改善,若內房市場隨着內地經濟重啓而復甦,料明年港銀股盈利潛在強勁復甦;從中期來看,銀行利潤率和純利的可持續性取決於美國加減息的速度及幅度。
報告表示,在過去五個月期間,由於內地長期封城及買家信心下跌,令內地房地產市場持續惡化,港銀股股價已平均調整了約20%,目前中銀香港仍是該行首選,主要是其資產質素良好、強勁盈利增長及派息率高,予中銀「買入」評級,目標價微升0.5%至36.3元。
報告並表示若內地房地產市場復甦進一步明朗,或會對恆生及東亞(00023.HK)看法轉向更正面。美銀證券予恆生「中性」評級,目標價降1%至140.3元。另予東亞「跑輸大市」評級,目標價降1.5%至10.1元。
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