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陈伟明:港股回吐 分注吸纳
阿思达克 11-28 11:37
耀才证券销售客户服务部高级经理陈伟明称,世界杯举行期间,港股成交淡静,恒指上周未见明确方向,仅在17,500点附近窄幅上落,即使中证监主席易会满早前提及国企估值有重估空间、新经济板块近期业绩理想、美国议息纪录显示多数官员认同在未来放缓加息步伐、内地放风降准,港股仍然拒绝向上,反映港股月初升幅已经完全把利好消息反映,短线应该有回吐压力,笔者上周亦继续提醒各位,捞货时机要等待,并且可考虑在港股17,700点以上继续造淡。 人民银行一如所料上周五(25日)收市后公布全面降准0.25厘,但对港股完全没有帮助,相反内地疫情持续升级、美汇反弹、人仔又再度回软,港股今早(28日)已跌穿17,000点。这次港股在11月中18,414点见顶后回吐,之后在17,500点略见短暂支持后再插,完全符合笔者预期,目前正准备等待港股回吐至大约16,700点以下开始分注买货。 正如早前笔者多次提醒,美国虽然加息压力减低,但高息周期应该仍然有一段时间,不利于新经济板块,从而间接拖累恒指表现,美汇虽近期回落,但短线应略有反弹,内地早前憧憬疫情措施放宽,当市场意识到内地疫情持续严重,很容易成为拖累内地与香港两地股市的诱因,人行降准会拖低人民币汇价,亦间接不利港股走势。结论是在美汇反弹、人仔回落、新经济板块回软、内地疫情恶化下,港股升得多总要还,因此港股跌至17,000点以下仍然是笔者预期之内。 值得留意,港股近期下跌最主要是消化港股早前过急的升势,未来在内地政策转向稳经济支持下,笔者相信港股在17,000点以下跌幅相对有限,继续造淡略嫌太迟,策略重点应该是耐心等待港股回吐至16,700点以下分注吸纳股票,主力Short Put 美团-W(03690.HK)及濠赌板块。预期港股短期只会在16,500至17,500点附近区间上落。 (笔者为证监会持牌人) ********* 恒指或下试16,900点支持 耀才研究部称,上周五(25日)美股收市个别发展,科技股表现偏弱。展望本周,美股将迎来多项非农经济数据以及PMI景气指数,另外联储局将会公布经济褐皮书,主席亦会及表公开讲话,双方对联储未来的加息态度有著重要影响,需密切留意。港股方面,内地上周全面降准0.25个百分点,共计释放长期资金约5,000亿元人民币,不过沪深收紧对公共场所的防疫限制,将会压制股市的弹幅,股市将下移至即市支持即20天及50天线水平将16,900的水平。 由11月的升浪开始起计,恒指最多曾经升超过3,800点,以黄金比率起计的话,回调0.382的水平可能会回试16,934点,此水平亦同为50天线及20天线,投资者可以留意这个水平作为气氛分水岭。 (笔者为证监会持牌人)~
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