漲“嗨”了!銀行板塊全線大爆發,機構:年底有望迎來估值修復
今日,銀行板塊持續向上拉昇,成爲市場上領漲的板塊之一。A股方面,青島銀行漲停,浙商銀行漲5.82%,寧波銀行漲4.68%,廈門銀行漲超3%,郵儲銀行、蘭州銀行、招商銀行等紛紛上漲。
港股內銀股同樣上演爆發行情,青島銀行一度飆漲50%,浙商銀行漲超12%,哈爾濱銀行漲超22%。
第2次降準或將到來
近日,國常會指出,要部署抓實抓好穩經濟一攬子政策和接續措施全面落地見效。其中有一條就是要加大金融支持實體經濟力度。引導銀行對普惠小微存量貸款適度讓利,繼續做好交通物流金融服務,加大對民營企業發債的支持力度,適時適度運用降準等貨幣政策工具,保持流動性合理充裕。
很多經濟學家表示,新一輪降準或將很快到來。
以4月爲例,13日國常會提出「適時運用降準等貨幣政策工具」,兩天後央行便就宣佈4月25日下調金融機構存款準備金率0.25個百分點。
中金指出,此次國常會提及降準旨在配合支持年底信貸發力,緩解近期流動性波動帶來的幹擾。預計降準幅度0.25-0.5個百分點,落地時間可能在12月上旬。
民生證券分析師溫彬表示,由於降息仍受到美國貨幣政策的掣肘,降準成爲更可行的政策工具。需要指出的是,近年來,降準已經變成常規操作,其主要目的保持流動性合理充裕,但也能實現逆週期調節的功能:一是配合財政政策,服務於專項債等的加快發行;二是降低銀行資金成本,引導LPR下行;三是推動銀行增加資金投放,加快信用擴張。
東方金誠王青也表示,此次國常會提及降準,釋放了宏觀政策向穩增長方向加力的信號,有助於提振市場信心,對衝疫情對經濟運行的擾動,助力今年底明年初穩增長保就業。
若此次降準在短時間內落地,5年期以上LPR在12月份下調的概率大幅上升。除了流動性投放效應外,降準還有降低銀行資金成本的作用。疊加9月份以來商業銀行啓動新一輪存款利率下調,由此判斷12月份5年期以上LPR下調概率很大。
銀行板塊年底有望迎來估值修復
雖然自11月以來銀行板塊呈上漲趨勢,但今年以來,銀行板塊「跌跌不休」,年內跌幅已超過9%。尤其是7月份以來,板塊進一步調整,行業估值已處於歷史低位。
國泰君安表示,近期宏觀壓制因素邊際緩解,銀行板塊估值已經開始修復。金融支持房地產從信號進入落地階段,夯實銀行投資政策底;太平人壽舉牌工行H股,釋放積極信號做實估值底。雙重利好催化下,機構繼續看多銀行板塊。
中金也指出,內地銀行及國有上市企業估值中樞有提升空間,這與其相對有韌性的基本面形成反差。截至11月21日,金融板塊甚至比上市國企和非國企的估值更低,當前的市盈率和市淨率分別爲5.9倍和0.58倍,市淨率估值已處於歷史最低狀態;上市銀行的市盈率和市淨率爲4.3倍和0.51倍,股息率高至6.1%。另外,橫向對比全球公司,中國的銀行及國有上市公司的估值也普遍低於海外可比公司。未來在「中國特色現代資本市場」的積極建設過程中,投資者有望逐步改善對上市國企和金融板塊的價值的認知。
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