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半數美國人狂歡,黑五購物人數將超疫情前水平,零售ETF迎來催化劑?
uSMART盈立智投 11-25 14:33

黑色星期五可能不像以前那麼瘋狂,但它仍然是最重要的假日季節中最繁忙的購物日。在過去十年中,零售商越來越多地提供大幅折扣以吸引購物者進入商店,這對整體經濟產生了重大影響。

零售假期已經慢慢變成了黑色十一月,零售商整月都在持續做優惠活動,但感恩節後的第二天仍然被認爲是購物季的開始。

根據Sensormatic Solutions的預測,黑色星期五將是本季最繁忙的購物日,其次是聖誕節前的星期五和聖誕節後的第二天。

全國零售聯合會表示,1.663億美國人將在感恩節週末購物,即從感恩節到網絡星期一的這段時間內。如果準確的話,這將超過2019年大流行前1.653億購物者的最高點。

另外,NRF預測,11月和12月假期期間的零售額將比2021年的水平增長6-8%,超過4.9%的10年平均水平。

“NRF的假期預測考慮了許多因素,但總體前景總體上是積極的,因爲消費者基本面繼續支持經濟活動。儘管通脹水平創歷史新高,利率上升,信心低下,但消費者的支出仍然保持穩步增長。”NRF首席經濟學家Jack Kleinhenz在報告中寫道。

如果是這樣的話,這對零售ETF來說是個好兆頭。SPDR S&P Retail ETF(XRT)、VanEck Retail ETF(RTH)和Amplify Online Retail ETF(IBUY)今年均下跌,因投資者質疑消費者是否會在高通脹面前繼續支出。這三隻ETF年初至今的跌幅從12%到53%不等,基金持有成分股的差異導致了跌幅的不同。除非大盤出現重大挫折,否則強勁的假日購物季可能是這三隻ETF的上行催化劑。

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