國金證券:金融16條正式發佈,着力修復市場預期
本文來自格隆匯專欄:國金證券,作者:杜昊旻
事 件:2022年11月23日,央行、銀保監會正式發佈《關於做好當前金融支持房地產市場平穩健康發展工作的通知》,提出保持房地產融資平穩有序、積極做好“保交樓”金融服務、積極配合做好受困房企風險處置、依法保障住房金融消費者合法權益、階段性調整部分金融管理政策和加大住房租賃金融支持力度的六大方面十六條措施(簡稱“金融16條”)。
同日,國常會指出要加大對民營企業發債的支持力度,適時適度運用降準等貨幣政策工具,保持流動性合理充裕;落實因城施策支持剛性和改善性住房需求的政策;推進保交樓專項借款儘快全面落到項目,激勵商業銀行新發放保交樓貸款,促進房地產市場健康發展。
評 論
“金融16條”正式發佈,銀行積極響應,多家房企獲新增授信。央行和各金融機構積極落實保障房地產融資平穩有序的措施。11月23日,交通銀行給予萬科、美的置業分別1000億元、200億元授信;中國銀行給予萬科1000億元授信;中國農業銀行與五家房企舉行銀企戰略合作協議簽約儀式。
我們預計後續將有更多央國企和優質民營房企獲得各大銀行的授信。需要注意的是,銀行授信的提取是和房企業務體量同步的,且保函置換和保交樓借款等也會佔用授信額度,新增授信能一定程度緩解房企的現金流壓力,而房企未來的持續拿地發展仍然要靠自身經營性現金流的支撐。
發債支持與風險處置並行,保交樓是首要任務。11月23日“第二支箭”擴容首批民營房企落地,中債增出具對龍湖集團、美的置業、金輝集團三家民營房企發債信用增進函,首批分別支持發行20億元、15億元、12億元中期票據,預計其他優質民營房企的發債增信也將快速落地。而部分長期受困房企則是在積極尋求債務重組方案,嘗試通過市場化化解風險。
同時,國常會提出的“推進保交樓專項借款儘快全面落到項目”與21日央行提出的2000億元免息再貸款相呼應,增量和存量項目的交付齊齊推動,有利於整體市場預期的修復。
各類寬鬆政策或協同發力,促進購房需求釋放。國常會提及“適時適度運用降準等貨幣政策工具”,預計房貸利率或將繼續下行。而在需求側的其他方面,上海、北京、杭州、成都和西安等高能級城市也相繼出台局部限購放鬆的政策,後續可期待更多如認房又認貸標準的放鬆、限價的突破、二手房指導價的取消等措施,逐步提升購房者信心,促進需求釋放。
投資建議:短期部分民營房企受金融支持現金流或出現邊際改善,而中長期看央國企的發展更有支撐,在優質的土儲和持續的拿地能力加持下,更享寬鬆政策帶來的利好。
首推主要佈局重點城市核心板塊的改善型房企,如建發國際集團、綠城中國、濱江集團等;穩健選擇現金流安全且能保持一定拿地強度的頭部央國企,如中國海外發展、招商蛇口。
風險提示:市場對寬鬆政策反應鈍化;三四線城市恢復力度弱;多家房企出現債務違約
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