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花旗料樓價將再跌一成 明年次季見底
阿思達克 11-22 12:24
花旗銀行零售銀行業務主管李貴莊相信,明年經濟將會回暖,通脹亦會放緩,加上失業率下降,料將有利市民重返樓市。她又預期,由於政府不希望出現太多負資產,預計當本港樓市從高位回落15至20%後,政府有機會放鬆部份辣招,如重價印花稅,以刺激需求。她預期,樓價由今年10月至明年第二季會再跌10%,並在明年次季見底。 她又提到,當銀行有加息壓力,料最優惠利率(P)在整個加息周期累升1.5%,意味著接下來P還會再增加1.125%,令明年第二季的實際供款按揭利率超過4厘。 花旗銀行於今年9月就市民置業意向進行調查,對未來12 個月樓價感樂觀的受訪者比例,從去年同期的38%,大幅回落至今年第三季的12%,過半認為未來12個月樓價會下跌。對置業有實際需要的受訪者當中,逾六成認為切合需要的樓宇價格市值約600萬以下。 對比上年同期,認為現在是置業好時機的受訪者比例顯著上升四倍,是近十年以來最高的紀錄。雖然今年有更大比例的受訪者認為現在是入市好時機,但受訪者的置業意欲比去年同期只輕微提升兩個百分點,觀望態度仍然濃厚。李貴莊表示,這與市民自身的經濟能力、本港經濟及按揭息率有關。
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