《大行報告》匯豐研究:內地房市新政驅動六大板塊上行 列出相關受惠股
匯豐研究發表報告指,內地房市「組合拳」出台為市場帶來驚喜,市場重新恢復風險喜好模式,帶來直接(內房)及間接(其他行業)的廣泛性利好。該行稱,內地房市復甦快過預期,將直接利好內房板塊,並對其他板塊帶來提振。該行在六大板塊(內房、建材及承建商、內銀、券商及港交所、公用、航運)列出相關受惠股。
報告稱,內地拯救房市,對陷入財困內房帶來不成比例的益處,內房急升令人聯想起2017年內房牛市。考慮下行風險顯著減少,投資者正在建倉,亦接受復甦需時。該行偏好中海外(00688.HK)、潤地(01109.HK)及萬科(02202.HK),因基本面強勁;不過,要留意配股風險。
匯豐研究料建材需求趨穩,承建商融資壓力減少。政策對竣工的重視,最利好作為施工周期後段建材的玻璃。考慮估值,水泥股中,該行認為海螺水泥(00914.HK)及中建材(03323.HK)比較吸引;承建商中,則喜好中國建築國際(03311.HK)。
內銀方面,報告稱,系統性風險正在緩和,內銀在確認風險貸款上獲得一些彈性。良好政策執行可降低內房貸款損失預期。不過,內銀在扶持內房上也要付出。在這板塊,匯豐研究推薦招行(03968.HK)、中行(03988.HK)及交行(03328.HK)。
報告續稱,政策「組合拳」料刺激A股日均成交,亦刺激孖展融資,推薦中信証券(06030.HK),料資本市場活動改善可刺激A股及港股市場雙向資金流動,及提升市場效率,故港交所(00388.HK)亦屬一大受惠者。
匯豐研究補充,在公用板塊方面,該行對燃氣接駁的估算迎來上行風險,在樂觀情境下,該行對公用股的盈測及估值計算有上行空間,受惠新接駁量上升。不過,由於燃氣需求結構性減少,對燃氣公用企業維持審慎看法。該行偏好昆能(00135.HK),因具垂直整合業務模式,兼擁有淨現金進行潛在併購。
報告指出,鋼材需求趨穩及復甦料驅動鐵礦石補充庫存,對乾散貨運行業利好。該行料太航(02343.HK)屬核心受惠者,而運費疲弱帶來的影響料將緩和。
匯豐研究對內地房市復甦相關板塊受惠股投資評級及目標價,表列如下:
股份 | 投資評級 | 目標價(港元)
中國海外(00688.HK) | 買入 | 27.3元
華潤置地(01109.HK) | 買入 | 47.4元
萬科企業(02202.HK) | 買入 | 21.4元
海螺水泥(00914.HK) | 買入 | 30.5元
中國建材(03323.HK) | 買入 | 7.8元
中國建築國際(03311.HK)| 買入 | 12.4元
中信証券(06030.HK) | 買入 | 16元
招商銀行(03968.HK) | 買入 | 45元
中國銀行(03988.HK) | 買入 | 3.6元
建設銀行(00939.HK) | 買入 | 6.7元
交通銀行(03328.HK) | 買入 | 5.9元
昆侖能源(00135.HK) | 買入 | 7.9元
太平洋航運(02343.HK) | 買入 | 3.6元
華潤水泥(01313.HK) | 持有 | 4元
香港交易所(00388.HK) | 買入 | 320元
新奧能源(02688.HK) | 買入 | 117元
港華智慧能源(01083.HK) | 持有 | 3.6元
華潤燃氣(01193.HK) | 持有 | 26.2元
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