植耀輝:美股續升觀望零售數據 港股先行整固
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美國10月PPI增幅低於預期,隔晚(15日)美國三大指數繼續維持升勢,惟尾市傳出俄羅斯導彈擊中波蘭一村莊並造成兩人死亡,消息一度令美股大幅波動,不過最終仍能錄得升幅。道指上升0.17%至33,592點,標普500指數及納指則分別上升0.87%及1.45%,收報3,991點及11,358點。值得一提的是,台積電(TSM.US)受包括巴郡(BRK.A.US)在內之基金青睞,台積電股價急升超過一成。今晚(16日)美國將公布零售數據,預期對美股及美匯又會有所啟示。
回說港股方面,在ATM股份造好下,恆指再度急升,最終收報18,343點,上升723點或4.11%,成交金額再次突破2,050億元。單計11月,恆指累升超過3,650點,升幅接近25%,已完全收復10月份失地。「ATM」為升市火車頭,三隻股份已為恆指貢獻338點,金融股亦有不俗貢獻,匯控(00005.HK)、港交所(00388.HK)及平安(02318.HK)便為恆指貢獻近百點。
港股近期升勢無疑相當急,雖說有利好消息配合,但單月如此急升實在相當罕見。不過在樂觀情緒主導下,港股再升亦不出奇,只是短期似乎仍存在不少變數,尤其是內房。繼碧桂園(02007.HK)後,雅居樂(03383.HK)亦趁股價大幅反彈後集資,或會利淡相關板塊表現;另外,歐洲地緣局勢亦存在一定變數,此外今日騰訊(00700.HK)季績亦值得留意。預期今日恆指將於現水平先行整固,於18,000點附近上落。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,持有台積電股份)
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關注騰訊及內房表現
耀才研究部稱,隔晚(15日)美股盤中繼續反覆上落,由於美國10月份PPI按月升幅0.2%,只及預期一半,加息預期放緩,支持市況,道指最多升逾400點,不過留意到利率期貨顯示明年終端利率仍然能夠達到4.87厘,則意味著股市短期彈幅有限。港股方面,恆指於高達2000億的成交配合下連日突破多條移動平均線,目前需要先於50天線水平整固,即市支持位11月14日低位17,518點,跌穿後回補裂口17,368的機會則加大。今日(16日)騰訊(00700.HK)公佈業績,以及關注內房陸續配股集資情況
技術走勢方面,恆指已修復10月初的下跌裂口,RSI買入動能繼續配合增強,現時等待10天線升穿50天線的黃金交叉,下一步則有望回補9月22日的裂口位置18,434點。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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