《大行報告》野村:內房「沃爾克式」緊縮政策或結束 惟行業需數月時間恢復
野村發表研究報告指,內地推出多項支持房地產政策,包括擴大民企債券融資規劃達2,500億人幣、以及16條穩定內房政策,該行相信,上述措施並不會改變內地房屋需求和新屋銷售,但能為原對該行業抱低預期的資本市場,帶來提振作用,加上連同內地政府微調「清零」政策,故該行預料未來一至兩星期內房股投資氣氛仍穩固。
該行相信,過了12月舉行的中央經濟政策會議後,料政策放寬鬆方面將更明朗化,但目前仍對內房行業的基本面持審慎看法,民營內房而言,短期內偏好龍湖(00960.HK)及新城發展(01030.HK)。
野村另一份有關內房行業的報告補充,最新內房政策舉措,或發出「沃爾克式」緊縮政策或已結束的信息。財困發展商、建築公司、按揭供款人以及其他持份者或可「鬆一口氣。」
不過,報告料內房行業需數月時間復甦,因疫情持續,及內地政府對放寬行業監管及刺激大城市住房需求持審慎看法。即使在復甦後,新屋銷量料仍遠較疫情前為少。該行仍認為,倘撇銷大城市非市場主導的限購,將對內房行業帶來更可靠的解決方案。
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