瑞信料明年內地乘用車銷量按年跌雙位數 新能源車銷量看升40%
瑞信亞太區汽車行業證券研究聯席主管王斌形容,對於內地汽車行業而言,明年料為較痛苦的一年,相比受惠於利好政策,今年第三季乘用車銷量按年增38%,並延續至第四季,料明年或會按年下跌雙位數,主要因相關政策即將結束。
他指,由於高油價讓消費者轉向新能源汽車、多款低價位插電式混能汽車上市;競爭激烈帶來大力度促銷活動,加快推出新車型號,故預計明年將有約100款新能源汽車上市,同時帶動明年新能源汽車銷量按年增40%至940萬輛。
他補充,明年燃油車購置稅增加10%,預計部分製造商或會減價,以降低對客戶影響;同時內地明年1月起,逐步取消新能源汽車的購買補貼,故預計部分新能源汽車廠商亦會降低售價,以抵銷差價。
他提及,即使今年內地仍面對晶片供應不足的問題,但對新能源汽車的影響不大,主要是汽車製造商已在內地建立晶片生產工廠,加上技術成熟,能滿足其需求,故半導體不再是其重大阻礙。
瑞信中國證券研究主管兼中國股票策略主管黃翔亦補充,內地近年關注新能源行業,尤其擴大至生產特別材料、電池等,認為近日美國採取有關半導體的監管措施,或會進一步推動內地走向半導體獨立自主的道路,相反從全球供應鏈來看,內地還需要退讓,和歐美公司保持良好的合作關係,以確保內地仍停留在供應鏈中,而不受影響。
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