《大行報告》大摩:基本情景料騰訊(00700.HK)第三季收入按年跌3% 評級「增持」
摩根士丹利發表研究指,騰訊(00700.HK)將於本月中旬公布第三季業績,預期第三季收入表現將成為下一個股價催化劑,基本情況下預測收入將按年下跌3%,指出若收入錄得正增長,將為投資者下半年及明年增長預期帶來一定支持,維持「增持」評級,目標價350元。
大摩指騰訊旗下遊戲、廣告及金融服務等核心業務今年上半年都受到監管改革、宏觀疲軟和疫情不確定性等因素嚴重影響,股價已跌至2018年以來的歷史低點,認為在有效成本優化措施推動下,騰訊的利潤率提升是可以預料的,因此收入能否錄得增長將成為下一個關鍵股價驅動因素。
大摩分三個情景作出預測。在第一個情景下,若第三季收入按年跌3%,則是由於遊戲收入表現疲軟,抵銷了期內廣告及金融服務業務的逐步復甦,將令股價出現下跌5%至上升10%。在第二個情景下,若視頻號變現速度快於預期,令第三季收入錄得正增長,則預期令股價上升10%至15%。在第三個情景下,假如騰訊第三季收入跌幅超過5%,該行預期股價將相應下跌5%至10%。
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