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瘋漲!新冠藥概念起飛,康希諾AH股直線暴拉,H股一度怒漲60%,醫藥賽道行情來了?

11月2日,醫藥股全線大爆發,新冠藥概念更是勢不可擋。

截止發稿,A股康希諾20CM漲停,康辰藥業漲停,科興製藥漲超13%,神州細胞-U漲超11%,君實生物-U漲超8%。港股康希諾生物一度漲近60%現報41.14%,三葉草生物-B漲超27%,華領醫藥-B漲超19%,歌禮制藥-B漲超17%。

值得注意的是,康希諾AH股今日成為新冠藥概念中最亮眼的仔。10月以來,康希諾AH股走勢便節節攀升,目前H股累計漲幅近180%,A股國慶節後累計漲幅超108%。

反彈上攻背後

10月中下旬以來,醫藥股開始了一輪反彈上攻行情,而其背後的影響因素,一方面是醫藥生物公司三季報的業績增長表現亮眼。

有數據顯示,截至10月29日,在423家醫藥生物公司的三季報中,近七成公司收入同比上升,半數以上公司歸母淨利潤同比上漲,31家公司淨利潤實現倍增。從細分領域來看,醫療器械、CXO(醫藥外包服務)領域的多數企業業績表現亮眼。

另一方面,國內對於新冠疫苗部署工作又迎來了新進展。

在繼上海開啟吸入用新冠疫苗接種後,江蘇省十三個城市也已開展吸入用新冠疫苗的部署工作。其中,無錫、淮安和揚州率先開放康希諾生物吸入用重組新型冠狀病毒疫苗(5型腺病毒載體)克威莎霧優的預約和接種工作,可為廣大市民提供不用打針的疫苗接種服務。

此外,有機構表示目前國內已有多個口服新冠藥進入後期臨牀階段,預計2022H2-2023年將有多個國產口服新冠藥獲批上市。

目前,君實生物VV116 已披露與Paxlovid 的頭對頭3 期臨牀試驗數據,開拓藥業普克魯胺也已披露3 期臨牀數據,先聲藥業SIM0417 已進入2/3 期臨牀試驗,齊魯藥業QLS1128已開展1 期臨牀,眾生藥業RAY1216 已開展1 期臨牀,科興製藥SHEN26已獲批臨牀……

此外,不久前,歌禮制藥-B也表示,在新藥臨牀試驗申請前溝通會議後,歌禮已向美國食品藥品監督管理局(FDA)遞交新冠口服候選藥物蛋白酶(3CLpro)抑制劑ASC11的新藥臨牀試驗(IND)申請。

除上述公司外,還有多個國內企業新冠口服藥處在臨牀前階段。根據上述產品的臨牀開發進度,預計2022H2-2023 年國內將有多個國產口服新冠藥獲批上市,屆時將進一步改變國內新冠疫情防控格局。

機構看後市

值得關注的是,近期來醫藥板塊開啟了一輪反彈行情,接下來會如何走?多家機構表示醫藥板塊目前已經具備較好的估值性價比。

東北證券表示,政策催化、盈利預期改善以及估值和機構持倉處於低位使得醫藥基本具備反轉條件。當前來看,醫藥基本具備反轉條件:一是醫藥基礎設施建設、創新藥、醫療器械、中醫藥等方面的鼓勵政策持續出台;二是Q3的行業盈利增速下行趨緩,Q4醫療器械、醫藥商業和醫療服等細分行業盈利增速可能上行;三是醫藥需求短期大概率維持高增速;四是估值(分位數2.1%)和機構持倉已至歷史低位。

天風證券也認為醫藥板塊目前已經具備較好的估值性價比受到2021新冠疫苗高基數和疫情影響終端接種等影響,2022年疫苗企業業績表觀增速受到影響。2023年預計新冠疫苗帶來的高基數影響消除,以及疫情緩解帶來的終端需求恢復,並且隨着相關公司產品的研發上市,2023年預計恢復高增長;此外,目前疫苗相關公司估值較低,具備較好投資機會。

中泰證券也表示,集採政策預期和流感業績干擾是當前壓制醫藥板塊的兩大要素,認為醫藥歷經數輪集採後規則設定、品種選擇越發客觀合理,“腳踝式”降價將逐漸成為過去式。同時認為三季報可能是醫藥板塊業績最差的時候,預計隨着公共衞生防控常態化管控,診療逐步恢復、國內外運輸改善、原材料成本緩和,醫藥行業有望在Q4逐步迎來加速恢復,當前時點建議繼續加大醫藥配臵力度。

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