短期非理性情緒釋放後，接下來對港股關注點落在哪？
受對國內經濟增長前景的擔憂，疊加外資流出增加影響，海外中資股上週再度出現恐慌性拋售，使恆生指數跌至2009年以來最低水平。
來源：風研海外
外資流出增多無疑加大了市場壓力。對比A股，即便估值更低，但港股作爲離岸市場更易受外資流出以及人民幣與港元貶值等外部因素影響。在這一背景下，市場情緒降至低點，表現爲賣空成交比率創出新高以及市場進入明顯超賣區間（RSI指標達到25%）。
宏觀環境方面，根據天風證券宏觀研究團隊，三季度中國經濟「環比意義」上逐月恢復，預計四季度經濟將會延續弱復甦的態勢。央行週二宣佈上調外債額度參數，有助於穩定人民幣預期。根據彭博，美國第三季度GDP恢復增長，好於經濟學家預期，但報告也反映出消費支出仍面臨壓力。
然而，上週五公佈的美國9月核心PCE通脹率加速上升，顯示消費者支出保持韌性，後續美聯儲加息步伐是否放緩仍存不確定性。根據天風證券宏觀研究團隊，本輪貶值的空間逐漸充分，但時間上仍不充分，短端中美國債利差仍處在歷史最低值附近。短期關注重點宏觀事項包括：11月1-2日美聯儲議息會議，11月8日美國中期選舉。
港股上週波動較大。截止10月28日，恆生指數2022/2023年彭博預測PE爲8.3x/7.3倍，預測股息率分別爲4.5%/4.9%，靜態市淨率爲0.6x；恆生科技指數2022/2023年彭博預測PE分別爲22x/16x；估值處於歷史底部區間。
短期來看，預計部分非理性情緒釋放後，市場關注點將回歸中國經濟以及企業的基本面。預計中國科技互聯網企業三季度整體收入增長較二季度呈現環比溫和恢復的狀態，降本控費繼續支撐短期利潤韌性。
展望後續，預計隨着宏觀環境的逐步恢復、企業利潤率中樞上移、以及低基數下，2023年中國科技互聯網企業盈利有望迴歸較高增長，目前彭博預測2023恆生科技指數每股收入、每股盈利分別+13%/+39%。整體而言，我們認爲，基於當前處於歷史相對「極端」的估值水平，以及中期內基本面修復趨勢，中國科技互聯網企業中期估值性價比較高。
建議關注：美團、騰訊、拼多多、京東、阿裏巴巴。
風險提示：美國和歐洲市場面臨持續加息和高通脹率；國內疫情反覆風險；國內經濟增長放緩；政策刺激效果不足
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