恆生薛俊昇料本港今年全年經濟收縮0.8%
恆生銀行(00011.HK)經濟研究部主管兼首席經濟師薛俊昇表示,第三季本港經濟按年跌幅較第二季有所擴大,主要反映外圍環境進一步轉差及環球利率持續上升的影響,歐美經濟放緩影響環球貿易活動,撇除通脹因素,第三季本港進出口貨量按年跌幅擴大至逾15%。另一方面,環球主要央行持續收緊貨幣政策,息口趨升影響企業投資意欲。
作為投資指標的本地固定資本形成總額繼續錄得按年跌幅。環球不明朗因素增加阻礙本地消費復甦步伐,私人消費開支連續兩季按年比較持平。
該行預期環球經濟不景氣,以及歐美央行進一步加息,繼續是本港經濟短期內面對的主要下行風險,但勞工市場改善,失業率持續回落,加上防疫措施逐步放寬及政府消費券等刺激經濟措施,或有助零售銷售市道繼續改善,預期本地消費需求繼續回穩。
由於首三季整體經濟平均按年收縮3.2%,全年經濟或錄得負增長,恆生目前預測今年本港經濟收縮 0.8%,同時指出本港經濟下行風險加大,意味預測存有調整空間,未來具體經濟表現也要視乎外圍環境及主要央行政策的變化而定。
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