凱投宏觀:德國第三季度經濟反彈可能只是推遲了衰退的開始
格隆匯10月28日丨凱投宏觀首席歐洲經濟學家Andrew Kenningham在一份報告中說,德國經濟在第三季度出人意料地表現出彈性,GDP環比增長0.3%,這可能只是推遲了經濟衰退的時間。這將是一段時間內德國經濟錄得增長的最後一個季度,IFO商業景氣指數和PMI等商業調查均明確指向衰退。更重要的是,衝擊經濟的逆風——高通脹、利率上升和外需下滑——都越來越強。
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