植耀輝: 港股反彈力度不足 入市只宜短線
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,回說港股方面,恆指昨日(27日)持續反彈,雖曾一度重上15,800點,惟隨著科技股升幅收窄,恆指僅升110點,收報15,427點。由於過去兩日港股又有所反彈,因此有部分投資者亦有意入市,而問得最多及最感興趣的,竟然不是ATM而是港交所(00388.HK)!可能大家認為港交所屬獨市生意,長線具吸納價值。如投資氣氛再度轉旺,港交所必然會受惠,而且未來還有中概股第二上市之憧憬。
但大前提是現時市況是否已雨過天晴呢?筆者的看法甚有保留。雖說恆指連升兩日,但亦僅收復週一大跌過千點後部分跌幅而已,而本輪反彈主要是受惠美匯及美債息回落,以及人民幣反彈因素,北水大手掃貨亦應記一功。只是筆者認為美國加息步伐基本不變,意味憧憬美國加息放慢僅一廂情願而已,美匯強勢確實難以扭轉;何況後市仍充斥眾多不明朗因素,所以現階段入市,還是抱短炒心態會較適合。建議先訂好止賺/止蝕再部署也未遲。至於港交所現水平是否吸引則見仁見智,但如考慮短炒的話,則似乎波幅更大之科技股更具值博率。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)
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恆指受制15,500點 市況續反覆拉鋸
耀才研究部稱,美股隔晚(27日)個別發展,科技股季績表現普遍令人失望,拖累納指下跌,不過能源及工業股表現造好,支持道指上揚。至於中概股表現則普遍偏軟,金龍指數下跌3.6%。港股方面,昨日在科技股帶動下一度重上15,800點水平,惟午後升幅又再度收窄,最終僅升110點或0.72%。港股連續兩個交易日未能企穩15,500點之上,反映高位缺乏承接之餘,大市氣氛仍然相當審慎,短期內如未能突破該水平,恐怕大市仍只會維持反覆拉鋸局面。
至於技術走勢方面,恆指雖然連續兩日回升,但成交有所遞減之餘,10天線已下移至16,000點水平,意味後市反彈阻力或會增加。另外,MACD雖然熊差有所收窄,但未見轉勢信號,反映後市走勢或仍偏弱。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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