《大行報告》匯豐研究:國際投資者減持中資股 料信心難復 但對長線仍保持樂觀
匯豐環球研究發表中國離岸市場策略報告表示,就近期投資者風險胃納的下降幅度遠超該行的預期,指市場對中國離岸資產的避險情緒較預期的要激進得多,但該行預計只屬短期逆風(headwinds),但並非風暴(storm)。由於政策方向仍在發展,該行的基本面長期看法並無重大變化,該行指市場信心雖難以恢復,但從長遠來看,該行仍保持樂觀,維持對中國市場「增持」看法。
該行指在閱讀市場信號,就估值水平屢試新低,但正如該行在內地房地產行業看法,此可能不是最準確的近期市況信號,並看到市場對離岸股票中資股盈利預測的降幅更大;至於資金流方面,國際投資者似乎仍然減持,但港股通的流入量仍為正數。
匯豐環球研究認為,下一個潛在風險領域在於機構投資者所持股價表現較優良的大型股份,若一旦發生潛在的追加保證金通從以影響槓桿投資者,而大幅調整可能會給實力較弱的金融機構帶來壓力,增加溢出效力的潛在風險。
該行指,續對中國2023年的經濟增長持建設性態度,相信中國仍是全球製造業和消費需求的中心之一,並相信香港仍將是核心離岸金融中心,板塊方面建議關注醫療保健、工業、必需消費品和非必需消費品。
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