《大行報告》瑞銀料國際投資者會再降中資互聯網股風險敞口 但料內地資金透過南向交易流入
瑞銀發表中國互聯網行業報告表示,KraneShares CSI中國網路ETF(KWEB)於9月累跌17.7%,原因是投資者消化內地新冠疫情及部份地區「封鎖」的影響,以及「清零」政策或持續更長時間,而10月以來KWEB又再累跌25.3%,投資者關注美晶片禁令等消息。該行指市場於9月份及10月基於上述事件下修了對中國互聯網股份估值預測。
該行表示近期與投資者進行溝通,許多投資者對最近幾周對中國互聯網行業股份的發展感到驚訝,投資者認為在行業的不確定性仍然很高,能見度較低下,主要變量是政策驅動的。該行認為必須等到內地12月舉行中央經濟工作會議(CEWC)或明年3月至4月召開的人大及政協會議,才能獲得更多相關政策的方向。
瑞銀指,投資者認為美國政策對中國互聯網行業未來影響的可能性會提高,料國際投資者會再次降低在香港和美國上市公司的中國互聯網風險敞口。然而,該行料一些來自大陸投資者的資金會透過港股通南向交易流入。
該行為,中國互聯網行業風險依然存在,認為互聯網企業管理層在短期內在業務和投資者溝通方面採取謹慎和保守的態度,並且不會給予任何長期展望。該行認為第三季度收益後可能進一步下調估值,再加上市場情緒可能會推低估值。相對而言,該行喜歡電子商務勝過其他互聯網行業,尤其是估值較低的公司,如拼多多(PDD.US)、阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)和京東-SW(09618.HK)。
除了中美政策之外,瑞銀認為美國上市公司會計監督委員會(PCAOB)對中概股會計審計若能達成功結論的影響將會是積極的,可能在11月或12月有結果。而「雙十一」購物節數據點可以提供一些在線零售銷售保持的好消息。
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