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羅永浩或進軍淘寶直播,這意味着什麼?

投資要點

事件:羅永浩或進軍淘寶直播。10月18日,“老羅羅永浩”和“交個朋友嚴選店”兩個賬號登陸了淘寶直播平臺,或預示着羅永浩將會在近期開啓淘寶直播。2020年簽約抖音後,羅永浩/交個朋友一直是抖音平臺上的頭部主播之一。淘寶直播目前是需要超頭主播的,而羅永浩擁有成爲超頭主播的潛力。淘寶直播和抖音的商業模式有較大差異,羅永浩此舉,對於平臺和品牌商而言,都是非常重要非常值得跟蹤關注的事情。

若成功登陸淘寶,未來羅永浩還會在抖音直播嗎?——或雙平臺一起播:我們認爲未來羅永浩將會同時在淘寶和抖音兩個平臺分別進行直播。在平臺經濟反壟斷法實施之後,已經不會有所謂“二選一”的情形。對於羅永浩而言,同時在兩個平臺上直播將有助於接觸到更多的客戶。而抖音和淘寶的平臺環境和客戶心智都有很大差異,因此我們判斷“交個朋友”將會在兩個平臺分別開設兩個不同的直播間進行直播。

淘寶直播和抖音直播,對於主播而言有何區別?淘寶和抖音直播最大的區別在於集中度。淘寶的土壤更適合孵化以“集採折扣電商”爲特色的“超頭主播”,而抖音更適合“興趣電商”的“多元化主播”。淘寶直播是一箇中心化程度很高、用戶購物心智和目的性較爲明確的平臺,超頭主播的成交額和議價權遠超其他中腰部主播,也能從品牌商手中拿到更低的折扣;而消費者對主播的訴求,也主要是“低價買到自己認識的品牌商品”。抖音直播是一個去中心化的直播平臺,對上遊品牌商折扣率的議價能力沒有那麼強,也不存在實質上的“超頭主播”;抖音的消費者更看重直播內容的趣味性。

老羅會成爲下一個“超頭主播”嗎?——可能會,但仍需觀察:羅永浩此前在抖音上的直播風格,和此前淘寶超頭主播是有差距的。傳統上的淘系超頭主播,主要賣一些我們都大概知道價格的知名商品,然後通過超低折扣帶來成交量;羅永浩在抖音上的風格更內容化,更偏向於興趣電商的推薦。我們認爲,羅永浩若要成爲淘系超頭主播,要賣更多大品牌的商品,且拿到更大的折扣。未來羅永浩在對知名品牌的議價能力上,能否進一步提升,達到李佳琦級別的影響力,仍需持續觀察,而這也是羅永浩能否成爲超頭主播的一個重要的先決條件。

對平臺而言,這意味着什麼?對於淘系平臺而言,羅永浩/交個朋友的加盟將顯著提升平臺主播矩陣的整體實力,帶來新流量且提升多樣性;抖音平臺受影響程度不大,一是抖音本身中心化程度低,羅永浩/交個朋友的佔比不高,二是抖音交個朋友直播間已經不需要羅永浩親自直播就能保證相當的成交額。

對品牌而言,這意味着什麼?羅永浩/交個朋友登陸淘系平臺後,將有助於淘系主播之間形成“超頭主播 – 潛在超頭”的梯度競爭關係,這對於品牌商而言,也有了更大的選擇空間。

推薦標的:成長勢能優秀的國產品牌珀萊雅、貝泰妮、華熙生物、極米科技等。

風險提示:羅永浩/交個朋友登陸淘寶直播一事仍有不確定性等。

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