中金報吿丨天貓雙十一前瞻:服飾品類新戰略逐步落地
格隆匯10月18日丨中金10月9日發佈研報稱,2022年9月30日,中金與淘寶天貓服飾負責人交流,交流內容包括服飾品類針對商家和消費者的新舉措、直播電商影響和平台的差異化價值。
中金評論:
“從交易到消費”戰略逐步落地,分層消費者需求,提升消費體驗。阿里2022年5月提出“從交易到消費”戰略,公司未來重心從完成交易到迴歸消費體驗。“從交易到消費”戰略在服飾品類的落地一方面通過數據對目標進行分層,精準洞察用户需求並匹配差異化的消費場景,另一方面通過科技來增強互動、提升服飾品類購物體驗。聚焦消費者體驗是迴歸平台價值創造的本質,利用好阿里在數據和科技側的優勢對消費者進行精細化運營,增強消費者粘性,交易量的提升會是自然而然的過程。
打造商家經營和品牌沉澱主陣地,數字化工具助力品牌全生命週期運營。公司表示,淘寶天貓對於商家的價值會從賣貨和營銷逐漸拓展至新品打造、內容運營、品牌資產沉澱、用户管理等完整經營活動,依靠阿里巴巴完善的品牌服務體系、數字化工具和深刻的消費者洞察幫助品牌實現全生命週期的運營。針對服飾品類,平台會依靠趨勢和消費者洞察為商家提供流行趨勢方向和內容運營助力,提升品牌能力和消費者和品牌的匹配效率。對於未來的商家供給生態,淘寶天貓服飾品類期待從紅人型品牌、風格型品牌和內容型品牌等方向完善差異化的服飾供給,給予符合產業需求的商家更多的幫助。
直播電商激活服飾品類生態,對阿里的影響或逐漸趨緩。公司表示直播電商覆蓋了差異化的客羣和消費習慣,激活原有服飾市場,長期看是良性的刺激。從競爭來説,直播電商的競爭是阿里巴巴不斷迭代、追求更高的信任感和滿意度的動力。我們認為隨着阿里在消費者和商家端戰略逐漸落地、短視頻流量紅利逐漸見頂,直播電商對阿里的影響或逐漸趨緩。
雙11或成為品牌銷售增長的重要節點。公司表示疫情對今年商家的經營有一定影響,消費者趨於理性,對優惠力度較大的促銷有較高期待,商家普遍將雙11視作今年重要的生意增長機會,也加大了備貨力度。品牌仍將天貓作為經營主陣地,雙11有望成為品牌商家銷售增長的重要節點。
淘寶天貓以經營確定性吸引商家。當下商家普遍關注經營確定性和利潤留存,淘寶天貓聚焦優化用户體驗和運營細化,用多樣化產品矩陣和多模式履約服務消費者的差異化需求,深挖消費者潛力,從而給商家帶來確定性增長。“從交易到消費”戰略下淘系重心進一步向消費者傾斜,這一舉措或有望增加消費者粘性和錢包份額,提升平台長期競爭力。

中金給予阿里巴巴H股和美股跑贏行業評級,目標價分別為137港元和140美元。
風險:
新冠疫情影響;宏觀消費疲軟;電商競爭加劇;監管不確定性。
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