《大行報告》中金降恆生(00011.HK)目標價至140.04元 評級「中性」
中金發表報告,指恆生銀行(00011.HK)長期以來較同業具溢價,受惠具質素客戶基礎,料其2024至2027年間股本回報率復甦至介乎12%至13%水平,其預測未來一年市賬率料復甦至介乎1.4倍至1.6倍水平。考慮本港短期經濟復甦緩慢及恆生對內房行業的風險敞口,降其2022至2023年盈測分別7.8%及9%,至分別122億及190億元。該行現估值相當於預測今明兩年平均市賬率1.2倍,維持「中性」評級,目標價降11.2%至140.04元。
報告稱,恆生高盈利能力受低成本本地存款、輕資產財管業務、以及資產質素穩健所支持。恆生淨息差長期跑贏行業,受惠低成本存款及持續產品創新。財富管理及個人銀行業務貢獻恆生介乎50%至60%稅前盈利,但佔總資產僅20%至30%。保險業務佔財富管理收入逾50%,恆生壽險業務市佔穩定於約4%,受惠產品設計及分銷渠道。報告稱,恆生管理穩固,有嚴格風險控制,而非僅重視高資產收益或急遽擴張。
中金補充,恆生盈利受疫情對本地零售銷售打擊及內房行業業務敞口所影響。恆生股本回報率在去年及今年上半年降至分別7.6%及5.1%,受累疫情打擊本地信貸需求及企業營運。資本市場波動亦致非利息收入大降。恆生對內房相關信貸成本亦上升。
展望未來,報告稱,本港經濟逐漸走出疫情陰霾,本地營商環境料改善。即使與內房相關風險不確定性延續,該行留意到內地政府政策陸續出台以穩定房市。該行料在未來數年上述因素對恆生的影響將會逐漸消退。
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