國泰君安：需求驅動，22Q4鋰價易漲難跌
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國泰君安證券研究，作者：國君有色於嘉懿
週期研判：供不應求格局難扭轉，看好鋰價全年高位持續性。
基本面上，短期鋰供需繼續緊張，鋰價維持高位走勢，且精礦端更為確定。1）期貨端：2210合約本週漲3.3%至54.6萬元/噸；2）鋰精礦：上週亞洲金屬網鋰精礦價格為5640美元/噸，環比漲50美元/噸。我們認為鋰供應增量一年內並不會出現（更多影響遠期的供應預期），預計鋰現貨價格2022年將再創新高。國內鈷原料價格小幅反彈，鈷鹽冶煉企業價格調整邏輯轉向需求主導。鈷業公司多向電新下游製造業延升，構成鈷-鎳-前驅體-三元的一體化成本優勢，增強競爭壁壘。
四季度下游需求拉動，鋰價上漲加速：
上週中國碳酸鋰價格進一步上漲。根據與貿易商交流，電池級碳酸鋰：主流成交價格53.5-54.5萬元/噸左右（環比上漲1萬元/噸）,已有報價55萬元/噸。基本面來看，供應端碳酸鋰產量較為穩定，需求端產能爬坡疊加下游採購節點，下游需求景氣度持續向上。根據SMM調研，目前上游碳酸鋰大廠除長協單交付外，仍有部分現貨出量，但更多庫存集中在江西及第三方貿易商。海外氫氧化鋰價格78-82美元/kg（環比+2美元/kg）。部分電池企業存在少量氫氧化鋰庫存調節，疊加終端需求小漲及價格持續上行下的買漲心態驅動，電池廠備貨材料態度積極，傳導至材料企業致使接貨十分積極。在市場流通量較低的背景下，中國氫氧化鋰價格受碳酸鋰價格上漲以及終端需求的明顯增長帶動，現貨報價不斷出現跳漲。增持：中礦資源、天齊鋰業，融捷股份，永興材料，贛鋒鋰業，盛新鋰能。受益：西藏礦業、西藏珠峯、江特電機、鹽湖股份、天華超淨、科達製造、川能動力、藏格控股。
鈷價穩定，需求穩中向好。國慶假期前國內鈷市場採購需求平穩，國慶期間鈷市場交易處於短暫停滯期，但生產保持正常，鈷產品價格維持穩定，市場情緒以觀望為主。國慶節後鈷鹽廠庫存穩定，鈷市場需求暫未出現強烈回暖跡象保持穩定，受成本面支撐價格維持穩定。節後正值月初，下游企業或仍有采購及補庫需求，市場成交或將有所恢復。受益：華友鈷業、寒鋭鈷業、洛陽鉬業、格林美。
正極材料報價穩中向上。根據鑫欏資訊，從市場供給來看，下游“金九銀十”的旺季需求支撐，以及年底衝量行情帶動，三元材料近期開工負荷基本維持較高水平，但目前鋰鹽貨源緊張且價格居高的情況讓預期實現情況存在變數，10月產量環比增長或在5%左右。不同種類的三元材料需求不同，6、8系三元材料滲透率繼續提升，電動工具等領域需求疲軟且性價比偏低，5系三元佔比或繼續下滑。
風險提示：新能源汽車增速不及預期。新能源汽車用鋰佔鋰行業供給約1/3，且貢獻未來鋰行業大部分需求增量。若新能源汽車增速不及預期，鋰行業發展將大受影響。
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