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國泰君安:需求驅動,22Q4鋰價易漲難跌
格隆匯 10-17 13:45

本文來自格隆匯專欄:國泰君安證券研究,作者:國君有色於嘉懿

週期研判:供不應求格局難扭轉,看好鋰價全年高位持續性。

基本面上,短期鋰供需繼續緊張,鋰價維持高位走勢,且精礦端更為確定。1)期貨端:2210合約本週漲3.3%至54.6萬元/噸;2)鋰精礦:上週亞洲金屬網鋰精礦價格為5640美元/噸,環比漲50美元/噸。我們認為鋰供應增量一年內並不會出現(更多影響遠期的供應預期),預計鋰現貨價格2022年將再創新高。國內鈷原料價格小幅反彈,鈷鹽冶煉企業價格調整邏輯轉向需求主導。鈷業公司多向電新下游製造業延升,構成鈷-鎳-前驅體-三元的一體化成本優勢,增強競爭壁壘。

四季度下游需求拉動,鋰價上漲加速:

上週中國碳酸鋰價格進一步上漲。根據與貿易商交流,電池級碳酸鋰:主流成交價格53.5-54.5萬元/噸左右(環比上漲1萬元/噸),已有報價55萬元/噸。基本面來看,供應端碳酸鋰產量較為穩定,需求端產能爬坡疊加下游採購節點,下游需求景氣度持續向上。根據SMM調研,目前上游碳酸鋰大廠除長協單交付外,仍有部分現貨出量,但更多庫存集中在江西及第三方貿易商。海外氫氧化鋰價格78-82美元/kg(環比+2美元/kg)。部分電池企業存在少量氫氧化鋰庫存調節,疊加終端需求小漲及價格持續上行下的買漲心態驅動,電池廠備貨材料態度積極,傳導至材料企業致使接貨十分積極。在市場流通量較低的背景下,中國氫氧化鋰價格受碳酸鋰價格上漲以及終端需求的明顯增長帶動,現貨報價不斷出現跳漲。增持:中礦資源、天齊鋰業,融捷股份,永興材料,贛鋒鋰業,盛新鋰能。受益:西藏礦業、西藏珠峯、江特電機、鹽湖股份、天華超淨、科達製造、川能動力、藏格控股。

鈷價穩定,需求穩中向好國慶假期前國內鈷市場採購需求平穩,國慶期間鈷市場交易處於短暫停滯期,但生產保持正常,鈷產品價格維持穩定,市場情緒以觀望為主。國慶節後鈷鹽廠庫存穩定,鈷市場需求暫未出現強烈回暖跡象保持穩定,受成本面支撐價格維持穩定。節後正值月初,下游企業或仍有采購及補庫需求,市場成交或將有所恢復受益:華友鈷業、寒鋭鈷業、洛陽鉬業、格林美。

正極材料報價穩中向上根據鑫欏資訊,從市場供給來看,下游“金九銀十”的旺季需求支撐,以及年底衝量行情帶動,三元材料近期開工負荷基本維持較高水平,但目前鋰鹽貨源緊張且價格居高的情況讓預期實現情況存在變數,10月產量環比增長或在5%左右。不同種類的三元材料需求不同,6、8系三元材料滲透率繼續提升,電動工具等領域需求疲軟且性價比偏低,5系三元佔比或繼續下滑。

風險提示:新能源汽車增速不及預期新能源汽車用鋰佔鋰行業供給約1/3,且貢獻未來鋰行業大部分需求增量。若新能源汽車增速不及預期,鋰行業發展將大受影響。

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