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《大行報告》里昂下調財險(02328.HK)及平安(02318.HK)目標價 評級「買入」
里昂發表研究報告指,在經濟放緩和人壽保險公司投資市場疲弱的情況下,預計中國保險業第三季業績將令人失望,而財產保險公司應受惠於新冠疫情引致出行限制和自然災害季節平靜的利好因素。壽險公司傳統的第四季銷售活動將繼續進行,但將不再是今年的催化劑。該行首選維持中國財險(02328.HK)和友邦保險(01299.HK),籲投資者採防守性態度。 該行表示,在疫情限制及宏觀環境放緩下,壽險新業務銷售或會疲弱,料首九個月的新業務價值(NBV)與上半年比較,將僅錄得輕微改善。該行料中國平安(02318.HK)首九個月NBV將下降27%,中國人壽(02628.HK)則下降14%。而財險方面,該行預計中國財險首九個月的綜合成本率(COR)為96.9%(較去年同期98.9%改善),並錄得純利增長23%。 該行提到,考慮到匯率因素,將財險目標價從10.6元下調至10.1元,又將平安目標價從65元下調至56元,但維持兩企「買入」評級;認為儘管平安缺乏短期行好因素,惟其壽險板塊交易價格低於一倍賬面價值,因此估值處於谷底。該行相信,即使內地取消與疫情相關的限制,消費者的購買力仍需時恢復,因此料內地壽險公司不會直接受惠於通關,而一旦股市出現反彈,料國企壽險股均會錄得反彈,惟這種反彈料不具持續性。
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