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一文讀懂隔夜美聯儲會議紀要!推動加息至“更限制”區間,然後放慢節奏評估影響
uSMART盈立智投 10-13 10:36

北京時間週四凌晨,美聯儲發佈了9月FOMC會議紀要。在上個月的會議上,美聯儲不僅決定連續第三次加息75基點,更新的點陣圖也顯示美聯儲官員們預期年內最後兩次會議還將有125個基點的加息空間。

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(來源:美聯儲)

總的來說,這份紀要再一次展現美聯儲對高通脹的擔憂和侷促,不過由於這部分影響早已體現在持續下跌的股價中,所以紀要發佈後股票市場的反應相對平靜。

會議紀要講了些什麼?

通脹改善幅度有限。許多與會者表示,美國的通脹仍遠遠超過委員會2%的政策目標,同時展現出來的放緩信號非常有限,通脹下行的速度慢於此前預期,所以委員們上調了實現價格穩定目標所需的聯邦基金利率路線。政策制定者們重申了實現通脹目標的承諾,還有有多名委員表示爲了實現降通脹,哪怕就業市場走軟也不應動搖。

維持利率處於“更限制”的區間。與會者們判斷,委員會需要轉向並保持更具限制性的政策立場,然後維持一段時間,直到有令人信服的證據表明通脹正迴歸2%的政策目標。

值得一提的是,週三披露的美國PPI數據意外環比提高0.4%,超出預期的同時也令週四出爐的CPI數據變得愈發重要。假設通脹數據仍超出預期,美股市場可能會出現較大波動。

不過美聯儲理事沃勒在上週也曾表示,後續幾周裏出爐的經濟數據對11月會議的影響有限,畢竟目前的通脹仍處於遠高於政策目標的狀態。但是在批準連續第四次加息75個基點的同時,委員們也將討論減緩加息速度的事宜。

考慮到美聯儲本輪加息逐步臨近市場預期的尾聲,有關何時結束加息的揣測也正在逐漸升溫。令市場稍稍感到暖心的是,許多與會者也提出,在目前全球經濟和金融環境高度不確定的環境下,調整進一步收緊貨幣政策的步伐相當重要,同時也應當考慮減輕對經濟前景造成不利影響的風險

部分委員們也指出,在評估一系列政策對經濟活動和通脹累積造成的影響時,到某個時間點放慢加息的步伐將變得合適

根據日程,下一次美聯儲議息會議將在11月2-3日舉行,僅比美國中期選舉早一週時間。

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