《大行報告》大摩下調港交所(00388.HK)目標價至252元 評級「與大市同步」
摩根士丹利發表研究報告,預測港交所(00388.HK)今年第三季日均交易量(ADV)將按季下跌25%,拖累收入按年及按季分別下跌22%及2%,認為市場不確定性和高利率環境的持續時間可能較預期長,為市盈率帶來壓力。
該行指出,今年8月和9月ADV已下降至約920億港元,而市場總市值於9月底降至30.8萬億元,對比6月底為39萬億元。第三季度股票和衍生產品ADV預期分別按季下降26%和16%,預期交易費用及系統使用費收入將按年及按季下跌28%及7%。
大摩預期,通過將投資組合轉移至內部資金,港交所淨投資收入表現將改善,可部分抵銷疲弱的交易費用,預計港交所第三季度的淨投資收益達1.83億元,高於第二季的3,000萬元,期內利潤料按年及按季下跌35%及2%。
該行預測港交所第三季每股盈利將按年跌35%,按季跌2%,考慮到市場成交量疲軟,將港交所2022年至2024年ADV預測各下調6.4%、4%及4.3%,每股盈測則下調6%、4%及4%。大摩將港交所目標價由300元降至252元,評級「與大市同步」。
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