《大行報告》瑞銀:內地黃金週物業銷售疲弱 刺激政策影響有限
瑞銀發表研究報告指,隨著內地推出多項寬鬆政策,黃金週期間的物業銷售或是良好的指標。10月1至7日期間,17個主要城市的一手銷售面積為63.64萬平方米,按年跌38%,亦分別較2019年及2020下滑44%及45%。一線城市日均一手銷售額按年大幅跌61%,其中,北京及上海分別跌86%和62%;二線及三線城市則分別跌12%和27%。該行指出,雖然合同登記備案可能存在一定時間滯後,惟一手市場總體呈現「黃金週」疲弱形勢。
該行提到,內地在國慶前推出多項寬鬆措施,而黃金週期間,一手銷售疲弱符合其對政策寬鬆刺激影響有限的預期,意味著買家對購房信心較低。該行預計樓市將呈L型復甦,因為政策寬鬆的影響被發展商違約部分抵銷,為樓價帶來下行壓力,亦引發了買家對竣工風險的憂慮。
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