《大行報告》中金:近期疫情反彈 內地國慶假期消費溫和增長 樣本省份增速中位數約5%
中金發表內地國慶假期消費報告表示,國慶假期消費溫和增長,內地樣本省份增速中位數約在5%左右。根據該行的不完全統計,全國有12個省(市、自治區)公布了國慶假期樣本企業的銷售額數據,其中湖南省樣本企業消費品零售額按年增長13.2%,江西、廣西兩地增速超過8%,增速較快。上海市、陝西兩地則出現了負增長,陝西主要受疫情和天氣影響,上海可能和統計樣本有關(7月上海社零總額便已恢復正增長)。這些省份國慶假期消費增速的中位數為5%。一些城市披露的數據表現較好,比如廈門、玉林、漢中等增速超10%。結構上看,線上消費顯著好於線下消費、商品消費好於餐飲消費。
該行指國慶假期旅遊出行下滑較為明顯。根據國家文旅部數據,國慶假期內地旅遊出遊4.22億人次,按年下降18.2%,降幅較中秋節擴大1.5個百分點。旅遊出遊人次恢復至2019年同期的60.7%,這是2020年下半年以來數據表現最弱的一個假期,恢復程度弱於4至5月的清明和五一假期。
據美團(03690.HK)數據顯示,10月1至5日,本地消費佔比77.4%,本地業態的日均消費額比2019年同期增長52%;攜程(09961.HK)數據顯示,國慶七天,本地、周邊旅遊訂單佔比達65%。消費半徑的縮短意味著更多人留在大城市,出行或返鄉的人更少。根據藝恩數據,國慶假期全國觀影餘3,600萬人次,恢復到2019年同期的30.5%,好於4至6月的假期,其中一、二線城市的票房收入按年降幅小於三四五線城市和全國總體,也側面印證了居民消費半徑的收窄。
10月初以來,全國新增感染病例數量上行,受影響的省份數量也有所增加。該行編制了疫情影響指數於9月下旬以來走高,截至10月7日達到307.9%,處於相對高位。
中金指內地消費表現偏弱,還有房地產下行等對就業和收入的影響。2021年下半年以來,受一些產業政策及房地產下行壓力加大的影響,居民收入和消費支出有所走弱,該行嘗試做一個簡單的拆解,假設社會零售總額中餐飲收入的增速下降體現疫情對消費場景限制的影響,非汽車商品的增速下降同時體現疫情對消費場景和收入的影響,可以看到2021年下半年以來,後者佔前者的比重是上升的。比重上升的這一部分,反映的便是非疫情影響的收入下降對消費的拖累。如果按照必需消費和可選消費來歸類,也可以觀察到類似的特徵。
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