《大行報告》星展降恆指未來一年目標至20,800點 料港股明年上半年之後風險偏好才再回升
星展發表中國資本市場策略報告,該行指基於調整對全球GDP預測,下調對中國今年經濟增長預測由原來3.5%下修至3%,將明年經濟增長預測由原來5%下修至4%,但強調中國明年GDP增長仍會遠高於美國及歐元區(料各增長0.3%及1%)預測。
該行料在適度通脹情況下,將允計內地可以在一定程度上進行減息,以令其經濟在全球衰退擔憂中較為安全。基於人民幣貶值後及料美國加息周期於明年見頂下,該行下調恆指未來12個月目標至20,800點,相當於預測市盈率10倍。
星展料美國聯儲基金利率至2023年首季將升至5厘,並估計明年全年均會保持在該水平,料並料美國明年下半年利率下行周期才會開始,估計美國10年期國債收益率有望在今年12月底達到3.9厘,但在2023年第四季度逐漸回落至 3.6厘水平。
該行料人民幣兌美元價最壞的情況將在本季反映,預計人民幣匯價將從2022年第四季度的7.25,至2023年第四季度將回升至7.05元水平。不過,該行對港股未來12個月的前景持謹慎樂觀態度,預計2023年上半年後風險偏好將再次回升。該行亦估計中國或於明年第二季放鬆新冠防疫措施。
星展亦列出其最新港股首選股名單,包括友邦(01299.HK)、中銀香港(02388.HK)、百威亞太(01876.HK)、比亞迪(01211.HK)、龍源電力(00916.HK)、中海油(00883.HK)、吉利(00175.HK)、港交所(00388.HK)、美團(03690.HK)及騰訊(00700.HK)。
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