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《大行報告》大摩下調中資新能源車股目標價 首予蔚來-SW(09866.HK)「增持」評級
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,考慮到由於宏觀不確定性增加和長期供應挑戰而導致第三季度銷售增長疲弱,下調對中資新能源車股的目標價,今年第三季行業經營乏力,料第四季庫存走勢將取決於新車型的動能。 該行表示,由於嚴格的疫情防控、充滿挑戰的供應條件和內地更激烈的競爭,進一步下調品牌的銷量和毛利率假設。監於產品重疊和競爭者增加,料行業將出現更激進的定價和規格策略。儘管在刺激政策到期之前,第四季的行業銷售可能會出現反彈,但避險情緒增強和行業的快速輪換仍將破壞投資者評估電動汽車品牌的基礎。 該行預期,蔚來-SW(09866.HK)、理想汽車-W(02015.HK)和小鵬汽車-W(09868.HK)在今明兩年分別交付13萬至15萬輛,和26萬至28萬輛電動汽車,較早前的估計下降5至15%。由於中國價格競爭更加激烈,又將毛利率預測下調0.2至2個百分點。 不過,該行提到,儘管對長期需求、盈利能力和執行力的擔憂日益增加,尤其是在行業低迷時期,但電動汽車三間巨頭在營運和財務上具有抵禦下行週期的能力,首予蔚來「增持」評級,目標價192元。其餘評級及目標價詳見另表。
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