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《大行報告》中金:內房供需兩端政策繼續發力 基本面或呈「緩復甦、弱信用」態勢
中金發表報告表示,上月30日國家財政部發布通知,對一年內住房先賣再買家庭給予個人所得稅退稅優惠;人行也發布通知,下調首套住房公積金貸款利率15個基點。 該行指,促進內地房地產市場平穩健康發展的政策合力正在形成。繼9月29日下調部分城市首套房貸利率下限,9月30日房地產財稅和利率政策再發力。財稅方面,出售自有住房後一年內重新購買住房的家庭,可退還已繳個人所得稅(目前個稅按照房屋增值額的20%或全額的1%計徵,部分地區可選擇計稅方式,滿五唯一住房免徵),該行預計該政策將有效引導改善性購房需求釋放。 利率方面,本次下調後首套住房公積金貸款利率已達歷史最低水平(5年以上首套公積金貸款利率為3.1%),金融端政策發力已非常充分。疊加此前供給側相關舉措的出台和落實,例如政策性銀行保交樓專項借款、建設銀行設住房租賃基金收購商品房用於租賃等,中金認為政策合力之下居民購房預期有望逐步企穩並回升。 報告指,供、需兩端政策或繼續發力,基本面可能呈「緩復甦、弱信用」態勢。9月高頻口徑新房銷售面積和百強房企銷售金額分別按月微增9%和4%,按年跌幅受低基數影響收窄至-23%和-26%,基本面指標表現整體仍較為疲弱。往前看,中金認為如果供、需兩端政策持續加碼,則銷售有望逐漸築底、緩慢復甦,按年跌幅受益於基數走低收窄更快,其中需求側,截至9月,32個超高/高能級城市中仍有超2/3的城市最低首付比例高於上一輪周期最低水平;供給側,仍須關注圍繞改善企業融資環境等信用修復政策,中期維度上看,此類措施也有助於提前緩解重點城市潛在供需缺口。 中金表示,近期伴隨行業供需兩端政策逐步加碼,認為行業基本面有望於本季度逐步築底、緩慢復甦;在企業層面,財務穩健、土儲優質、拿地積極的均好型房企將率先進入規模擴張和穩健擴表的良性循環,企業分化加劇、「強者恆強」格局顯現。建議投資者積極把握當前時點的地產及物業板塊佈局窗口期,內房H股推薦華潤置地(01109.HK)、綠城中國(03900.HK)、中國海外(00688.HK)、越秀地產(00123.HK)、建發國際(01908.HK)、美的置業(03990.HK)、中國海外宏洋(00081.HK),物管板塊看好中海物業(02669.HK)、保利物業(06049.HK)、華潤萬象生活(01209.HK) ;代建板塊看好綠城管理(09979.HK)。
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