《即日市評》人幣轉強恆指回升 港股9月累挫逾13% 第三季累跌21%
受金融股帶動下,恆指今日反覆回升。美上周新申領失業救濟人數下跌,市場擔心美聯儲須繼續進取加息,美股道指及納指各跌1.5%及2.8%;美國10年期債券孳息率回落至3.716厘,美匯指數最新跌至111.67,道指期貨最新升188點或0.64%,納指期貨最新升0.8%。摩通亞洲區貨幣指數升0.1%報97.35。中國9月官方製造業PMI升至50.1(市場預期49.7),但中國9月財新製造業PMI降至48.1(市場預期49.5),人民幣即期收升1,069個基點報7.0931兌一美元,上證綜指全日跌16點或0.55%收3,024點,深證成指跌1.2%,國慶長假前滬深兩市成交額降至5,608億人民幣。
港股今日反覆造好。恆指輕微高開0.06點,早段曾升178點一度高見17,344點,其後倒跌149點低見17,016點,全日升56點或0.33%,收17,222點;國指升1點或0.03%,收5,914點;恆生科技指數跌32點或0.93%,收3,450點。大市全日成交總額849.1億元,滬、深港通南下交易暫停,將於10月10日恢復。
恆指本周累跌710點或4%、國指本周累跌200點或3.3%、恆生科指本周累跌139點或3.9%,英國新任首相卓慧思政府上周五出台自1972年以來最激進的減稅方案,下調家庭和企業稅率,消息令市場擔心英國未來財政及影響美聯儲控制通脹情況,英鎊兌美元匯價顯著受壓,周中在岸及離岸人民幣亦曾跌穿7.2水平。而恆指本月累跌2,731點或13.7%、國指本月累跌951點或13.9%、恆生科指本月累跌823點或19.3%;恆指第三季累跌4,636點或21.2%、國指第三季累跌1,752點或22.9%、恆生科指第三季累跌1,420點或29.2%。
【調信貸政策 內房股彈高】
內地調整差別化住房信貸政策,內房股彈高,碧桂園(02007.HK)及旭輝(00884.HK)各升9%及11.1%,中金發表報告表示,人行、中國銀保監會發布通知,決定階段性調整差別化住房信貸政策。符合條件的城市政府(即今年6至8月新建商品住宅銷售價格按月、按年均連續下降的城市),可自主決定在2022年底前階段性維持、下調或取消當地新發放首套住房貸款利率下限。該行認為本次因城施策調整首套房貸利率下限,或有助於穩定和修復市場預期。
中金稱,第三季度以來新房銷售整體較為疲弱,本次利率政策調整有助於提振市場預期,往前看,該行認為如果配合其他房地產行業供、需兩端支持政策,新房銷售第四季度或逐步築底、緩慢復甦。
【市寬呈改善 李寧滔博挫】
港股今日市寬改善,主板股票升跌比率為21比20(上日為13比29);恆指成份股今日47隻股份上升,下跌股份21隻,升跌比率為64比29(上日為23比71)。大市今日錄沽空156.97億元,佔可沽空股份成交額705.1億元的22.262%(上日為26.141%)。
Nike(NKE.US)警告毛利率受壓盤後股價急跌9%,申洲(02313.HK)跌3.1%,安踏(02020.HK)跌4.3%,李寧(02331.HK)及滔博(06110.HK)各跌6.4%及5.8%。Nike公布截至今年8月底止(2023財年)財季盈利下降22%至14.68億美元,每股攤薄盈利為0.93美元。由於美元強勢導致毛利率下降220個點子至44.3%,低於市場預期的45.4%。Nike警告由於折扣優惠增加以及美元迅速上升,因此預計全年毛利率仍將受壓。
Nike指下大中華地區業務截至今年8月底止季度稅前息前利潤(EBIT)按年跌23%至5.41億美元,相關業務季度收入16.56億美元,按年跌16%(撇除匯率影響後按年跌13%)。
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