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《大行報告》瑞銀:歐美經濟衰退風險上升 亞洲庫存激增 周期股充滿挑戰
瑞銀發表亞太區市場策報告表示,基於全球利率躍升,亞太地區周期性股票及向北美地區出口股較防守類股份跑輸,隨著經濟衰退擔憂的進一步加劇,周期股的風險回報估值仍比以往經濟衰退周期的平均低點仍然高出48%,因此認為本輪周期股看起來仍不引人注目。 該行指亞太區內面臨庫存激增、出口放緩和衰退風險上升,該行對周期性股份持審慎態度,指美國、歐洲和中國新訂單的簡單平均數較十年均值低出接近兩個標準差,表明亞洲出口面臨進一步放緩。美國和歐洲的衰退風險上升,亞洲「自上而下」和「自下而上」的數據顯示庫存激增。該行認為,如果需求繼續疲軟且庫存已經很高,亞洲出口商/週期性行業的經營環境仍將充滿挑戰。 而瑞銀表示篩選在經濟衰退風險情境下,或已被「市場錯誤定價」(mis-priced)的周期性股票的推介名單,該行將當前估值與之前衰退期間的平均低谷進行比較,並結合該行分析師的觀點,指估值已低於谷底水平的周期性股票,並均予「買入」,而該名單上本港上市股份包括中興(00763.HK)、中建材(03323.HK)、小米-W(01810.HK)、中國中車(01766.HK)、廣汽(02238.HK)及長和(00001.HK)。
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