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週三美股、美債價格上漲,英國央行爲何能逆轉風險情緒?

來源:Wind

美股三大指數週三集體上漲,標普500指數和道瓊斯工業指數止步六連跌。隨着美債收益率下跌,股市對投資者的吸引力有所增強。

具體來看,標普500指數上漲71.75點,至3719.04點,漲幅達到2%;道瓊斯工業指數漲548.75點,至29683.74點,漲幅1.9%;納斯達克指數上漲222.14點,至11051.64點,漲幅2.1%。

在英國央行(Bank of England)表示將開始購買英國國債以穩定市場之後,債券收益率出現了大幅波動。美國10年期國債收益率在10多年來首次升至4%之後,週三迅速回落。截至當日收盤,10年期美債收益率錄得2009年3月以來最大單日跌幅,債券收益率下跌對應價格上漲。

週三,在英國央行(Bank of England)表示將「以任何必要規模」購買英國長期國債後,債券收益率回落到實際水平。瑞銀全球財富管理業務美國股票主管萊夫科維茨(David Lefkowitz)說,這幫助推動了美股週三的上漲。

萊夫科維茨表示:「過去幾個交易日,美國股市的壓力反映了固定收益市場的一些拋售。隨着拋售的平息,我們看到股市的基調有所好轉。」

近幾個月來,不斷上升的美國國債收益率推高了家庭、企業和政府的借款成本,並拖累了美股,導致企業估值大幅下降,道瓊斯工業指數本週進入熊市。美股新股發行陷入停滯,負債累累的公司面臨艱難的融資環境,抵押貸款成本飆升,導致美國房地產市場放緩。

目前還遠不清楚美債價格的上漲是否可持續。近日來,華爾街的分析師頻頻表現出對美債收益率走勢的困惑,對週三收益率的逆轉也是如此。例如,雖然在英國,較長期國債的收益率下跌幅度最大,但在美國市場,較短期國債的收益率下跌幅度同樣大,這類國債的收益率通常由美聯儲制定的短期利率前景決定。

對此,一些投資者和分析人士表示,在考慮到美聯儲在近期市場波動中可能扮演的角色後,有理由懷疑美聯儲是否會放緩加息步伐。

但其他人則不以爲然,認爲在美國經濟環境沒有出現更嚴重的變化情況下,美聯儲將繼續以它認爲降低通脹所需的速度加息。

因此,Piper Sandler的羅伯託•佩利和本森•達勒姆在週三給客戶的報告中寫道:「美債收益率上漲的緩解可能是暫時的。」

展望未來,分析師對美股前景仍偏謹慎。Bleakley Advisory Group首席投資官彼得•布克瓦(Peter Boockvar)表示,市場走勢出現波動,因爲各國央行正在解除多年來的寬鬆貨幣政策。他說,自金融危機以來,全球央行一直在壓低利率,直到最近,歐洲的利率都是負利率。

Bannockburn Global Forex首席市場策略師錢德勒(Marc Chandler)則表示,他認爲市場已經開始消化美聯儲最終利率的上升,最高可能達到5%。「我會說,美聯儲釋放的力量鼓勵市場重新定價最終利率。這無疑是引發市場波動的因素之一。」

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