以史爲鑑,美聯儲轉向伴隨哪些前瞻信號?哪個階段交易勝率更高?
機構指出,從歷史來看,美聯儲貨幣政策轉向可以通過觀察PMI是否快速下降逼近榮枯線爲前瞻信號,美國經濟在加息週期的後期往往容易出現衰退的跡象。
來源:王楊策略研究
另外,市場表現最好的階段爲加息轉降息期間,其次爲初次降息後3個月,表現相對較差的是加息結束前3個月。
2022年傑克遜霍爾會議上美聯儲主席鮑威爾發表「鷹派」發言,重申美聯儲加息的決心。隨後9月美聯儲議息會議上,美聯儲加息75bp。全球股市在連續加息的壓力下,波動明顯加大,當前美聯儲政策拐點成爲市場關注焦點。
美國從80年代以來一共經歷了六輪完整的加息週期,分別是1982年12月-1984年8月,1987年1月-1989年5月,1994年2月-1995年2月,1999年6月-2000年5月,2004年6月-2006年6月,2015年12月-2018年12月。
根據歷史六輪美聯儲加息轉降息的覆盤經驗,貨幣政策轉向可以通過觀察PMI是否快速下降逼近榮枯線爲前瞻信號,美國經濟在加息週期的後期往往容易出現衰退的跡象。
歷史上,美聯儲尚未在聯邦基金利率低於CPI期間進行降息。目前聯邦基金目標利率爲3.25%,美國CPI和核心CPI分別爲8.3%和6.3%,聯邦基金目標利率距離通脹仍有較大的距離。

從1980年以來六輪美聯儲加息轉降息階段的市場表現來看,市場表現最好的階段爲加息轉降息期間,其次爲初次降息後3個月,表現相對較差的是加息結束前3個月。邏輯上來看,最後一次加息後,經濟衰退跡象顯現,市場預期貨幣政策從緊轉鬆,資本市場往往會提前開啓上漲行情。

哪些行業有望脫穎而出?
統計每輪核心上漲階段的行業表現,漲幅居前行業多爲金融(第一/二/六輪)、資源(第一/三/五/六輪)、電子(第三/五/六輪),與此同時,消費中的耐用消費品和日用消費品往往漲幅排名居後。
邏輯上,金融爲早週期受益邏輯,電子則受益於流動性的寬鬆,資源在加息結束前多表現爲下跌,但隨着降息的臨近,市場對經濟預期開始改善,繼而帶動資源股股價上漲。

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