標普500可能重回3000點
標準普爾500指數週一收於3665.04點的2022年低點，但加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(RBC Capital Markets)認爲，該指數可能再下跌約4%，達到3500點，如果股市經歷上世紀70年代式的崩盤，甚至可能達到3050點。
RBC美國股票策略主管Lori Calvasina表示“我們認爲股市正處於一項重要考驗的風口浪頭。”“如果標準普爾500指數經歷典型的衰退下跌27%，該指數將跌至3501點。如果像上世紀70年代那樣收縮63%，市盈率將降至14倍，意味着將降至3052點。”
Calvasina分析了10年期美國國債收益率、個人消費支出通脹指數(PCE)和上世紀70年代以來的其他數據，預計標普500指數的市盈率將從目前的約18倍降至16.35倍。
Calvasina表示，這樣的下跌意味着標普500指數的市盈率從疫情時期高點的37.8倍回落了57%——“接近20世紀70年代和(90年代末/ 21世紀初)科技泡沫之後出現的收縮。”
RBC目前預計，大盤股公司到2022年的每股收益將爲218美元，如果如此規模的回調，意味着標準普爾500指數將比目前水平再下跌4.2%，到12月31日跌到3564點。
Calvasina補充說，另一項分析指出，標準普爾500指數甚至會進一步下跌至3501點附近。畢竟，從歷史上看，該指數在1937年的衰退期間及其前後下跌了27%(不包括2001年的衰退和1945年沒有出現市場回調的衰退)。如此規模的縮減將使標準普爾500指數跌至略高於3500點。
這位分析師還說，如果做出更悲觀的預測，標普500指數的市盈率可能會下降63%，這是上世紀70年代經濟停滯時期錄得的跌幅。這將使該指數的市盈率降至14倍，意味着標準普爾500指數將跌至3052點。
Calvasina表示，標普500指數的3500點“將是關注的關鍵，因爲該點將代表經濟衰退的中值。”
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