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瑞銀投行維持港全年GDP按年增長0.2%預測
阿思達克 09-26 10:10
香港入境檢疫從「3+4」變為「0+3」,瑞銀投行研究部認為,國際旅客出入的正常化應能提振商業信心,吸引內地外投資,增強香港作為國際貿易和金融中心的地位以及承擔的其它國際角色,檢疫政策放鬆將進一步助推旅遊相關行業和辦公樓業主。但這可能給本地零售商和零售物業業主帶來更大下行風險,因為出境游可能增加,而3天健康檢測可能導致入境旅客的復甦有限。 瑞銀投資銀行香港策略師陳志立表示,維持香港全年GDP按年增長0.2%的預測不變,因為前幾個季度顯著拖累增長,而外部增長不確定性仍較高。 陳志立認為中環辦公樓業主的表現將領先,因為中環辦公樓供應有限,企業搬遷至優質辦公樓,以及在中環辦公樓租金自2019年起大幅下滑後搬離中環的趨勢告一段落。他預計本地零售支出水平將走低,可能下滑12%,因為香港消費者可能出境旅遊,而不是在本地消費。
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