中信證券:關注強美元下各國貨幣政策的變化
格隆匯9月25日丨中信證券認爲,美聯儲9月議息會議繼續維持鷹派立場,對後續指引的緊縮程度超出市場預期。美聯儲超預期的操作也導致近期人民幣、日元等非美元貨幣承受貶值壓力。近期人民幣匯率快速貶值,據我們測算央行可能已經重啓了“逆週期因子”,儘管短期由於美聯儲鷹派立場導致美元指數可能繼續走強,人民幣存在進一步貶值的可能,但考慮到央行的操作,預計貶值幅度有限。需持續關注強美元下各國貨幣政策的變化。本週由於高頻數據影響,市場對9月出口增速較爲悲觀,中信證券認爲9月上旬高頻數據偏弱主要是颱風對港口生產和物流的影響,短期擾動消除後,預計出口增速將出現小幅反彈。
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