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植耀輝: 衰退陰霾籠罩 大市去向仍審慎
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,近期和朋友聚會,茶餘飯後總會或多或少涉及全球經濟狀況。筆者亦有分享自己的看法,現時全球三大主要濟體,美國、中國及歐洲現時均面對嚴峻挑戰。歐美正飽受高通脹及能源危機問題困擾,央行會否大幅加息以壓抑通脹成為一大關注點。中國則會採取較寬鬆之貨幣政策,但受疫情封控等問題影響,經濟前景亦不明朗。除此以外,似乎亦有越來越多證據顯示全球經濟前景將進一步惡化。貨運方面,集裝箱指數如CCFI及SCFI跌勢未止,航運市道亦出現「旺季不旺」慘況;聯邦快遞(FDX.US)上周之盈警更是一大佐證,加上今年較早時候Walmart(WMT.US)及Target(TGT.US)等美國零售商因庫存問題而紛紛下調業績展望,看來下年經經衰退恐難以避免。 另一重點則是加息周期究竟何時結束。執筆之時聯儲局一如市場預期加息0.75厘,不過最新點陣圖顯示,年內仍會繼續加息,至於何時會開始減息呢?答案是2024年。當然,估算兩年後之景況有點不切實際,不過美元一段時間內維持強勢卻是肯定的了!未來美國經濟及通脹情況亦相當值得大家關注。 亦要談談恆指表現。港股表現依然未見起色,昨日萬八關亦一度失守。由於好消息繼續欠奉,壞消息則接二連三,俄烏最新局勢,以預示戰事短期難以完結,對全球資源包括糧食等影響尤其重要。防疫限制亦令經濟前景變得不明朗。在此情況下,投資者除了「躺平」外,也沒有太多部署可以跟進。唯獨是筆者早前所推介之板塊繼續跑贏大市,建議可續持有。 (筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份) ********* 恆指最壞可見16,000點 北水開始進場 耀才研究部稱,隔晚(22日)美股連續第三日下跌,全球央行均開展加息潮,美國10年期債息突破3.7厘,拖累大型科技股下挫,納指再度收跌1%以上。環球風險胃納下降,港股將會面對同樣的情況,新經濟股繼續試底位的機會大,最新傳內地派監管官員小組到香港協助美國進行中概股審計檢查,中概股要反彈的話需視乎審計進度以及結果,意味現時大市仍然處於向下尋底的格局。 五年平均市盈率水平計算,恆指目前處於低一個標準差的水平,以最壞情況估算的話,指數將會下試其低2個標準差的水平,亦即16,000點。北水連續兩日淨流入超過30億,留意指數能否守住18,000點即市支持。 恆指技術走勢方面,以周線圖來看,恆指分別於4月及6月高見22,400點水平,造成雙頂型態,於正式跌穿頸線19,200點水平後,最大量度跌幅可回試16,000點。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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